Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases
Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases
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DOI：
10.1002/fee.1481
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发表时间：
2017-05-01
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
White, C. LeAnn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grant, Evan H. Campbell;Muths, Erin;White, C. LeAnn
尽管有人呼吁改善对野生动物中新出现的传染病的应对措施，但在受影响种群中发现疾病之前，很少考虑管理问题。反应性方法可能会限制控制的潜力并增加总响应成本。另一种积极主动的管理框架可以在发现疾病之前就确定减少未来影响的立即行动，并根据疾病的出现规划后续行动。我们确定了四个主要障碍，制定积极主动的管理策略，新发现的蝾螈病原体Batrachochytriumsalamarvorans（Bsal）。鉴于不确定性是野生动物疾病管理的一个标志，相关的决策往往是复杂的多个相互竞争的目标，我们主张使用决策分析来创建和评估之间的权衡主动（出现前）和反应（出现后）的管理选项。决策者和自然资源机构人员可以运用决策分析中的原则，改进应对新出现的传染病的战略。
Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.