Production fragmentation and business-cycle comovement
Production fragmentation and business-cycle comovement
复制标题
生产分散和商业周期联动
DOI：
10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.06.002
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
E. Ng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Ng
国际贸易越来越多地涉及在各国之间以分散安排生产的货物贸易，每个国家都专门从事生产序列的不同阶段。本文实证检验了双边生产分割安排较多的国家对是否倾向于具有更多相关的商业周期。利用30个国家的跨国数据，我们发现双边生产碎片化对经济周期波动有正向影响，而标准的双边贸易强度指标对经济周期的协整有负面影响。我们还发现，互补贸易的正效应(由双边生产碎片化捕捉)主导替代贸易的负效应(由双边贸易强度解释)，从而导致贸易的总体正向影响。因此，双边生产碎片化在商业周期对贸易增长作出积极反应的基础上发挥着关键作用。
International trade increasingly involves trade in goods being produced in fragmentation arrangements across countries, with each country specializing in different stages of a production sequence. This paper examines empirically whether pairs of countries with more bilateral production fragmentation arrangements tend to have more correlated business cycles. Using cross-country data from 30 countries, we find that bilateral production fragmentation has a positive effect while the standard bilateral trade intensity indicator has a negative impact on business-cycle comovement. We also find that the positive effect of trade in complements (captured by bilateral production fragmentation) dominates the negative effect of trade in substitutes (explained by bilateral trade intensity), resulting in an overall positive impact of trade. Hence, bilateral production fragmentation plays a key role underlying the positive response of business-cycle comovement to increases in trade.