Planning for the Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) in Los Angeles County and the United States
Planning for the Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) in Los Angeles County and the United States
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwq497
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发表时间：
2011-05-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Longini, Ira M., Jr.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chao, Dennis L.;Matrajt, Laura;Longini, Ira M., Jr.
数学和计算机模型可以通过预测流行病的发展过程和评估控制措施为公共卫生官员提供指导。作者建立在一个学术研究小组和加州洛杉矶县公共卫生部之间的现有合作基础上，计划和应对甲型H1N1流感大流行的第一年和随后几年。模型的使用使作者能够1）预测洛杉矶县和美国大陆流行的时间和规模; 2）预测2009年10月开始的流感大规模疫苗接种运动对洛杉矶县和美国大陆H1N1大流行病传播的影响;以及3）预测2010年冬季或春季的第三波流感大流行不太可能发生。在2009年秋季H1N1大流行期间，模型制作者和公共卫生官员之间的密切合作帮助洛杉矶县官员制定了一个衡量和适当的应对措施，以应对正在发生的大流行，并建立了缓解H1N1大流行的合理目标。
Mathematical and computer models can provide guidance to public health officials by projecting the course of an epidemic and evaluating control measures. The authors built upon an existing collaboration between an academic research group and the Los Angeles County, California, Department of Public Health to plan for and respond to the first and subsequent years of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) circulation. The use of models allowed the authors to 1) project the timing and magnitude of the epidemic in Los Angeles County and the continental United States; 2) predict the effect of the influenza mass vaccination campaign that began in October 2009 on the spread of pandemic H1N1 in Los Angeles County and the continental United States; and 3) predict that a third wave of pandemic influenza in the winter or spring of 2010 was unlikely to occur. The close collaboration between modelers and public health officials during pandemic H1N1 spread in the fall of 2009 helped Los Angeles County officials develop a measured and appropriate response to the unfolding pandemic and establish reasonable goals for mitigation of pandemic H1N1.