Estimating the hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times of paleoearthquakes
Estimating the hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times of paleoearthquakes
复制标题
利用古地震的不确定发生时间估计破裂的危险
DOI：
10.1029/1999jb900115
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发表时间：
1999
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Y. Ogata
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Ogata
在对古地震发生数据进行更新过程拟合时，由于样本容量通常较小，因此使用包含第一次地震前至观测期开始和最后一次地震后至现在两个时间段的数据更能提供信息。我们主要关心的是分析的数据，其中一些事件本身的发生时间是不确定的，并给出了间隔或一些分布。具体来说，我们考虑贝叶斯推断，其中每个不确定性被解释为与更新过程模型的可能性相关的先验分布。整合的后验相对于发生时间和它的最大化相对于更新过程模型的参数进行实施，以估计参数，并进一步比较其他竞争的更新过程模型的拟合优度。因此，所选模型的后验提供了与拟合更新过程模型相关联的不确定发生时间的分布的合理估计。最后，在最后一个事件发生时间不确定的情况下，提供了一个实用的方法来评估当前和未来的危险即将到来的破裂。
When a renewal process is fitted to paleoearthquake occurrence data, it is more informative to use the data including the two interval ends before the first event to the beginning of observation period and after the last event till the present time because the sample size is usually small. Our main concern is analysis of the data in which some occurrence times of events themselves are uncertain and given by intervals or some distributions. Specifically, we consider a Bayesian inference where each uncertainty is interpreted as a prior distribution associated with likelihood of a renewal process model. Integration of the posterior with respect to the occurrence times and its maximization with respect to the parameters of the renewal process model are implemented in order to estimate the parameters and further to compare the goodness of fit of other competing renewal process models. Thus the posterior of the selected model provides a reasonable estimate of distribution of uncertain occurrence times associated with the fitted renewal process model. Finally, in a case where occurrence time of the last event is uncertain, a practical method for the assessment of current and future hazard of the forthcoming rupture is provided.