North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 1843
North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 1843
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-13-00427.1
复制
发表时间：
2014-05-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Weisse, Ralf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dangendorf, Soenke;Mueller-Navarra, Sylvin;Weisse, Ralf
探测历史风暴统计数据和风暴潮的潜在长期变化对于保护沿海社区具有至关重要的作用。在没有长的均匀风记录的情况下，作者根据1843年以来北海的水位观测，提出了一种新的、独立的、均匀的风暴潮记录。风暴潮的特点是与大尺度大气环流模式有关的相当大的年际到年代际变化。风暴潮水平上升的时期在十九世纪末和二十世纪盛行，没有任何证据表明有重大的长期趋势。这与最近基于再分析数据的发现相矛盾，这些数据表明，自19世纪末以来，该地区的暴风雨不断增加。应用最新的风暴潮经验公式，对20世纪再分析(20CRv2)风压场和风暴潮记录进行了比较。比较表明，重新分析是一个有价值的工具，它在过去100年里产生了良好的结果；以前的统计关系是失败的，在预测的激增时间序列的高百分位数中留下了明显较低的值。这些较低的数值导致了整个调查期的显著上升趋势，而风暴潮记录和基于均匀压力读数的独立环流指数都不支持这一趋势。因此，作者们认为，这些差异与北海地区20CRv2早期较高的不确定性有关。
The detection of potential long-term changes in historical storm statistics and storm surges plays a vitally important role for protecting coastal communities. In the absence of long homogeneous wind records, the authors present a novel, independent, and homogeneous storm surge record based on water level observations in the North Sea since 1843. Storm surges are characterized by considerable interannual-to-decadal variability linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Time periods of increased storm surge levels prevailed in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries without any evidence for significant long-term trends. This contradicts with recent findings based on reanalysis data, which suggest increasing storminess in the region since the late nineteenth century. The authors compare the wind and pressure fields from the Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CRv2) with the storm surge record by applying state-of-the-art empirical wind surge formulas. The comparison reveals that the reanalysis is a valuable tool that leads to good results over the past 100 yr; previously the statistical relationship fails, leaving significantly lower values in the upper percentiles of the predicted surge time series. These low values lead to significant upward trends over the entire investigation period, which are in turn supported by neither the storm surge record nor an independent circulation index based on homogeneous pressure readings. The authors therefore suggest that these differences are related to higher uncertainties in the earlier years of the 20CRv2 over the North Sea region.