Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
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DOI：
10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z
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发表时间：
2021-11-25
期刊：
影响因子：
56.7
通讯作者：
Kriegler, Elmar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Luderer, Gunnar;Madeddu, Silvia;Kriegler, Elmar
光伏发电、风能和电池储能的成本下降速度比之前预期的要快。未来，将全球变暖限制在1.5-2摄氏度的气候政策将使碳基燃料变得越来越稀缺和昂贵。在这里，我们展示了太阳能和风能技术的进一步进步沿着碳定价以达到巴黎气候目标可以使电力比碳基燃料更便宜。与需求方创新相结合，例如在电动汽车和热泵方面，这可能会导致能源系统发生根本性转变，使电力最终用途占主导地位。在1.5摄氏度的情景中，生物能源和二氧化碳去除的可用性有限，到本世纪中叶，电力可能占最终能源的66%，是目前水平的三倍，大大高于政府间气候变化专门委员会评估的先前气候政策情景。在我们的高电气化情景中，生物能源产量较低，显著减少了与能源有关的土地和水需求，但人们对可再生能源和电池技术成本迅速下降对长期气候稳定途径的影响还没有很好的了解。Luderer等人指出，降低可再生能源成本和气候政策将使电力成为最便宜的能源载体，并可能导致到本世纪中叶电力占全球能源使用量的近三分之二。
Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5-2 degrees C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 degrees C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.The impact of rapidly falling costs of renewable energy and battery technology on long-term climate stabilization pathways is not well understood. Luderer et al. show that reduced renewable costs and climate policies will make electricity the cheapest energy carrier and can lead to electricity accounting for nearly two-thirds of global energy use by mid-century.