Water Supply Infrastructure Planning: Decision-Making Framework to Classify Multiple Uncertainties and Evaluate Flexible Design
Water Supply Infrastructure Planning: Decision-Making Framework to Classify Multiple Uncertainties and Evaluate Flexible Design
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000823
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Siddiqi, Afreen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fletcher, Sarah M.;Miotti, Marco;Siddiqi, Afreen
城市规划者在水基础设施发展决策方面面临挑战，原因是水资源供应和需求的短期变化、气候和人口增长的长期不确定性以及对水资源价值的不同看法。本文对这些多个不确定性进行了分类，并开发了一个决策框架，该框架结合了概率不确定性的模拟，深度不确定性的情景分析，以及随着时间的推移而减少的不确定性的多阶段决策分析。这一框架适用于澳大利亚墨尔本的一个案例，1997年至2009年的干旱促使投资50亿美元建造一座海水淡化厂，该工厂在干旱结束后于2012年完工。结果表明，使用灵活的设计，资本投资显着减少的机会。在大多数模拟中，不构建基础设施是最好的。然而，在10%的模拟中，与小型灵活的海水淡化厂相比，不建设基础设施会导致超过100亿美元的遗憾。对深度不确定性的情景分析强调了对未来的假设以及对评估基础设施绩效时缺水成本的价值判断的重大影响。(c)2017年美国土木工程师协会。
Urban planners face challenges in water infrastructure development decisions due to short-term variation in water availability and demand, long-term uncertainty in climate and population growth, and differing perspectives on the value of water. This paper classifies these multiple uncertainties and develops a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, scenario analysis for deep uncertainty, and multistage decision analysis for uncertainties reduced over time with additional information. This framework is applied to a case from Melbourne, Australia, where a drought from 1997 to 2009 prompted investment in a $5 billion desalination plant completed in 2012 after the drought ended. The results show opportunities for significant reduction in capital investment using flexible design. Building no infrastructure is best in most simulations. However, in 10% of simulations, building no infrastructure leads to regret of greater than $10 billion compared with a small, flexible desalination plant. Scenario analysis for deep uncertainties underlines the significant impact of assumptions about the future and also on value judgments about the cost of water scarcity in evaluating infrastructure performance. (c) 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.