Microclimate‐based species distribution models in complex forested terrain indicate widespread cryptic refugia under climate change
Microclimate‐based species distribution models in complex forested terrain indicate widespread cryptic refugia under climate change
复制标题
复杂森林地形中基于微气候的物种分布模型表明气候变化下存在广泛的隐秘避难所
DOI：
10.1111/geb.13447
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
J. Gill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jordan R. Stark;J. Fridley;J. Gill
由于局部条件的小气候缓冲作用，物种分布模型（SDMs）中使用的区域气候估计可能难以预测AimSpecies的气候生态位。在此，我们比较了在两个空间尺度上使用本地验证的冠层下小气候模型和基于内插气象站数据生成的sdm，以确定尺度和地形对未来潜在的冠层下变暖和物种分布的影响。位置大烟山国家公园（2090平方公里；北卡罗来纳州，田纳西州，美国）。时间周期1970 - 2006，世纪末变暖。研究了阿巴拉契亚南部森林维管植物的主要分类群。方法利用154种植物的发生记录和3种气候模式（大气候（1 km, WorldClim）、小尺度气候（基于30 m数字高程模型）和小尺度气候（30 m））对SDMs的拟合和时空预测进行了比较。结果我们发现，尽管各模型的SDM拟合相似，但在区域变暖4°C时，小气候衍生SDM预测的物种持久性要大得多，在某些地区差异达50%。小气候模型预测，在高海拔和靠近河流的栖息地，变暖趋势将得到缓冲。小气候SDMs预测中海拔物种的稳定性更高，特别是在河流附近的热缓冲区，而且重要的是，高海拔地区物种组成的变化较小。相比之下，尽管分辨率有所提高，但宏观气候和缩小尺度气候模式的预测结果相似。研究结果表明，仔细选择气候驱动因素，包括当地近地验证，而不是仅仅根据海拔缩小尺度，对预测分布至关重要。他们还提出，即使大气候变暖4°C，一些面临气候变化风险的物种也可能在小气候缓冲的隐蔽避难所中持续存在，这表明森林覆盖和地形在解释林下群落变化慢于预期方面的作用。然而，某些物种，如目前生长在对大气变化敏感的低海拔山脊上的物种，可能面临比宏观气候或低尺度气候sdm所显示的更大的风险。
AimSpecies’ climatic niches may be poorly predicted by regional climate estimates used in species distribution models (SDMs) due to microclimatic buffering of local conditions. Here, we compare SDMs generated using a locally validated below‐canopy microclimate model to those based on interpolated weather station data at two spatial scales to determine the effects of scale and topography on potential future below‐canopy warming and species distributions.LocationGreat Smoky Mountains National Park (2,090 km2; NC, TN, USA).Time period1970–2006, late‐century warming.Major taxa studiedVascular plant species of Southern Appalachian forests.MethodsWe compared the fit and spatio‐temporal predictions of SDMs generated using occurrence records of 154 plant species and three climate models: macroclimate (1 km, WorldClim), downscaled climate (based on a 30‐m digital elevation model), and fine‐scale microclimate (30 m) from a below‐canopy sensor network.ResultsWe found that, although SDM fit was similar across models, microclimate‐derived SDMs predicted substantially greater species persistence with 4°C of regional warming, with a difference of 50% of the species pool in some areas. Microclimate models predicted that warming trends will be buffered in high‐elevation and near‐stream habitats. Microclimate SDMs predicted higher stability of mid‐elevation species, particularly in thermally buffered areas near streams, and critically, less change in species composition at high elevation. In contrast, predictions of macroclimate and downscaled climate models were similar despite improved resolution.Main conclusionsOur results demonstrate that careful selection of climate drivers, including local near‐ground validation rather than downscaling solely with elevation, is critical for projecting distributions. They also suggest that some species at risk from climate change might persist, even with 4°C of macroclimate warming, in cryptic refugia buffered by microclimate, pointing to the roles of forest cover and topography in explaining slower‐than‐expected changes in understorey communities. However, certain species, such as those currently occurring on low‐elevation ridges that are sensitive to atmospheric changes, may be at more risk than macroclimate or downscaled climate SDMs suggest.
河岸森林中加拿大铁杉消失后，杜鹃花对种子库组成和丰富度的影响最大
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Cofer, Tristan M.;Elliott, Katherine J.;Bush, Janis K.;Miniat, Chelcy F.
通讯作者：
Miniat, Chelcy F.