Exploring the potential climate change impact on urban growth in London by a cellular automata-based Markov chain model
Exploring the potential climate change impact on urban growth in London by a cellular automata-based Markov chain model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2017.11.006
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发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Q. Lu;N. Chang;J. Joyce;Albert S. Chen;D. Savić;S. Djordjević;G. Fu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Q. Lu;N. Chang;J. Joyce;Albert S. Chen;D. Savić;S. Djordjević;G. Fu
在人口增长、社会经济发展和全球化的共同影响下，城市化已成为一种全球趋势。尽管伦敦最近的城市规划更加深思熟虑，但在经济地理学的背景下，气候变化和城市增长之间的关系仍然有些不清楚。这项研究依赖于降雨预测的统计降尺度模型（SDSM）的帮助下，它提供了未来的洪水潜力的伦敦的城市空间内的统计基础，同时考虑到主要的社会经济政策相关的土地利用管理。这些SDSM的调查结果，沿着与当前的土地利用政策，包括作为其他因素或约束条件的元胞自动机为基础的马尔可夫链模型，以模拟和预测土地利用变化在伦敦为2030年和2050年。分别采用包含和排除洪水影响因子的两种情景来评估气候变化对城市增长的影响。调查结果表明：（1）SDSM得出的伦敦2030年平均月降水量预计将增加，这将影响洪水潜力，从而影响开放空间的面积;（2）城市和开放空间预计将增加> 16和20平方公里（与2012年相比，分别为1.51%和1.92%），而由于城市化和气候变化，农业预计将大幅下降;（3）考虑未来降水变化引起的潜在洪水影响，将促使城市向开放空间和城市面积减少的方向发展。
Urbanization has become a global trend under the combined influence of population growth, socioeconomic development, and globalization. Even though recent urban planning in London has been more deliberate, the relationships between climate change and urban growth in the context of economic geography are still somewhat unclear. This study relies on rainfall prediction with the aid of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM), which provides the statistical foundation for future flooding potential within the urban space of London while considering major socioeconomic policies related to land use management. These SDSM findings, along with current land use policies, were included as other factors or constraints in a cellular automata-based Markov Chain model to simulate and predict land use changes in London for 2030 and 2050. Two scenarios with the inclusion and exclusion of flood impact factor, respectively, were applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on urban growth. Findings indicated: (1) mean monthly projected precipitation derived by SDSM is expected to increase for the year 2030 in London, which will affect the flooding potential and hence the area of open space; (2) urban and open space are expected to increase > 16 and 20 km2(in percentage of 1.51 and 1.92 compared to 2012) in 2030 and 2050, respectively, while agriculture is expected to decrease significantly due to urbanization and climate change; (3) the inclusion of potential flood impact induced from the future precipitation variability drives the development toward more open space and less urban area.