Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia's Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models
Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia's Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models
复制标题
使用多个 GCM 和水文模型对埃塞俄比亚上阿瓦什盆地河流流量预测进行不确定性评估
DOI：
10.1080/02626667.2020.1767782
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Chan W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chan W
在2071-2100年期间，使用五个Mike SHE水文模型、六个CMIP5大气环流模型(GCM)和两个有代表性的集中路径(RCP)情景，评估了气候变化对埃塞俄比亚上阿瓦什盆地河流流量影响的不确定性。水文模型在非饱和带和饱和带的空间分布和过程表示上各不相同。1975-1999年取得了很好的业绩(NSE：0.65-0.8；r：0.79-0.93)。与GCM相关的不确定性主导着高流量和平均流量预测的变异性(平均值：RCP4.5为-34%至+55%，RCP8.5为-2%至+195%)。虽然GCM在预测枯水流量中的不确定性占主导地位，但水文模型间的不确定性相当大(RCP4.5：-60%至+228%，RCP8.5：-86%至+337%)。方差不确定性归因分析表明，对于中高流量和不超过1%的水文模型，与GCM相关的不确定性平均占总不确定度的68%。对于低流量，水文模型的不确定性平均占总不确定性的18%；与GCM相关的不确定性仍然很大(平均：28%)。
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8;r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5, – 2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%).