Statistical predictability and spectra of air temperature over the northern hemisphere
Statistical predictability and spectra of air temperature over the northern hemisphere
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北半球气温的统计可预测性和光谱
DOI：
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发表时间：
1983
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
V. Privalsky
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Privalsky
参数模型和统计预测的年平均气温，无论是在个别站（MAAT）和纬向平均（MZAT），进行了评估。MAAT的时间序列长度为125至315年，MZAT为86年（1891-1976）。MAAT的最佳参数模型被证明是密切近似的一阶马尔可夫序列与一个小的特征时间尺度，使其统计可预测性是最小的。MZAT的变化应该用更复杂的模型来描述;统计可预测性的限度在4到5年之间。温度谱估计，并显示出相对较高的统计可预测性，导致在低频率的光谱能量的浓度。DOI：10.1111/j.1600-0870.1983.tb00184.x
Parametric models and statistical predictability of mean annual air temperature, both at individual stations (MAAT) and zonally averaged (MZAT), are evaluated. The time series have lengths from 125 to 315 years for MAAT and 86 years (1891–1976) for MZAT. The optimal parametric models of MAAT are shown to be closely approximated by a first-order Markov sequence with a small characteristic time scale, so that their statistical predictability is minimal. Variations in MZAT should be described with more complicated models; the limits of statistical predictability amount to between 4 and 5 years. The temperature spectra are estimated, and the relatively high statistical predictability is shown to result from the concentration of spectral energy at low frequencies. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.1983.tb00184.x