COVID-19 outbreak trends in South Africa: A comparison of Omicron (B.1.1.529), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Beta (B.1.351) variants outbreak periods.
COVID-19 outbreak trends in South Africa: A comparison of Omicron (B.1.1.529), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Beta (B.1.351) variants outbreak periods.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jiph.2022.05.011
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发表时间：
2022-07
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Hirao, Tomohiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz;Saulam, Jennifer;Mikami, Fumiaki;Kanda, Kanae;Yokoi, Hideto;Hirao, Tomohiro
我们提供了2020年11月至2022年3月期间Omicron（B.1.1.529）、Delta（B.1.617.2）和Beta（B.1.351）变种病毒爆发期间南非的COVID-19爆发趋势。我们使用了由约翰霍普金斯大学系统与科学与工程中心创建的COVID-19数据存储库以及牛津大学Our World in Data数据库中提供的2020年1月至2022年3月南非COVID-19疫情的时间序列汇总数据。我们使用连接点回归模型与数据驱动的贝叶斯信息准则方法来分析疫情趋势。此外，我们使用密度椭圆和分区建模的爆发数据。于Omicron爆发期间，南非的COVID-19病例于二零二一年十二月一日至十二月八日大幅增加4. 7倍。发病率的日均增长率在2021年12月16日之前达到峰值23，000例/天，比三角洲爆发期间的峰值增长高出18. 6%。南非的COVID-19病例在Beta爆发期间（2021年1月4日至1月14日）达到峰值增长，每日18，611例，在Delta爆发期间（2021年7月1日至7月11日）达到峰值增长，每日19，395例。密度椭球显示，在Beta和Delta爆发期间，每日病例数和每日死亡数之间存在显著相关性，但在Omicron爆发期间不显著。在贝塔和德尔塔爆发期间，每日报告的死亡人数相对较高，恢复率分别低于89.1%和91.9%。积压的统计可能是奥米克戎期间每日死亡人数大幅增加的原因之一。在Omicron期间，COVID-19病例的峰值增长比Delta爆发期间的峰值增长高出18. 6%。尽管如此，在奥米克戎爆发期间，死亡趋势的增长被认为是低的，这可能是由于低死亡率和病死率比例。奥密克隆变种的出现再次提醒我们--“在每个人都安全之前，没有人是安全的”。
We provided COVID-19 outbreak trends in South Africa during the Omicron (B.1.1.529), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Beta (B.1.351) variants outbreak periods from November 2020 to March 2022. We used the time series summary data of the COVID-19 outbreak for South Africa available in the COVID-19 data repository created by the Center for System and Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University and the Our World in Data database by the University of Oxford from January 2020 to March 2022. We used the joinpoint regression model with a data-driven Bayesian information criterion method for analyzing the outbreak trends. In addition, we used density ellipses and partition modeling on the outbreak data. During the Omicron outbreak period, COVID-19 cases in South Africa significantly jumped by 4.7 times from December 01 to December 08, 2021. The average daily growth rate of incidence peaked at 23,000 cases/day until December 16, 2021, which was 18.6 % higher than the peak growth during the Delta outbreak period. South Africa experienced peak growth in COVID-19 cases with 18,611 cases/day (January 04 to January 14, 2021) during the Beta outbreak period and with 19,395 cases/day (July 01 to July 11, 2021) during the Delta outbreak period. Density ellipsoid showed a significant correlation between daily cases and daily death count during the Beta and Delta outbreak period which was not prominent in the Omicron outbreak period. Comparatively higher daily death tolls were reported in days with a recovery rate of less than 89.1 % and 91.9 % in the Beta and Delta outbreak period respectively. The backlog counts may be one of the reasons for the significant increase in daily death tolls during the Omicron period. During the Omicron period, COVID-19 cases peaked growth was 18.6 % higher than the peak growth during the Delta outbreak period. Despite that fact, growth in death trends in the Omicron outbreak period was found low which might be due to the low mortality rate and case fatality proportion. The emergence of the Omicron variant once again reminds us that- “no one is safe until everyone is safe”.
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影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz;Saulam, Jennifer;Hirao, Tomohiro
通讯作者：
Hirao, Tomohiro
影响因子：
29.9
作者：
Mathieu, Edouard;Ritchie, Hannah;Rodes-Guirao, Lucas
通讯作者：
Rodes-Guirao, Lucas
DOI：
10.1016/s0262-4079(21)02140-0
发表时间：
2021-12-04
期刊：
New scientist (1971)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Vaughan A
通讯作者：
Vaughan A
影响因子：
2
作者：
Kim, HJ;Fay, MP;Midthune, DN
通讯作者：
Midthune, DN