Real option-based network investment assessment considering energy storage systems under long-term demand uncertainties
Real option-based network investment assessment considering energy storage systems under long-term demand uncertainties
复制标题
长期需求不确定性下考虑储能系统的基于实物期权的网络投资评估
DOI：
10.1049/rpg2.12532
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Cheng S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheng S
提出了一种基于实物期权(RO)的网络投资评估方法，用于量化配电网规划(DNP)中电池储能系统(BESS)的灵活性价值。应用几何布朗运动(GBM)来模拟负荷增长的长期不确定性。与假设方差不变的常用随机模型(例如正态概率模型)相比，它反映了从预测的角度来看，不确定性会随着时间的推移而增加的事实。因此，它避免了传统净现值(NPV)框架对块状投资的偏见，相对于更灵活的替代方案，这些投资无法提供战略灵活性。首次采用期权定价方法对配电网规划策略的柔性价值进行评估。为了优化规划方案，本文比较了不同投资策略的静态净现值和弹性价值。通过一个33节点系统的算例验证了该模型的有效性。结果表明，在需求增长不确定的情况下，BESS的柔性值对DNP至关重要。它为量化规划措施的灵活性和评估BESS的适时投资提供了分析工具，从而支持网络运营商促进灵活性服务和对冲长期不确定性的负面影响。
This paper proposes a novel real option (RO)‐based network investment assessment method to quantify the flexibility value of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in distribution network planning (DNP). It applied geometric Brownian motion (GBM) to simulate the long‐term load growth uncertainty. Compared with commonly used stochastic models (e.g. normal probability model) that assume a constant variance, it reflects the fact that from the point of prediction, uncertainty would increase as time elapses. Hence, it avoids the bias of traditional net present value (NPV) frameworks towards lumpy investments that cannot provide strategic flexibility relative to more flexible alternatives. It is for the first time to adopt the option pricing method to evaluate the flexibility value of distribution network planning strategies. To optimize the planning scheme, this paper compares the static NPVs and flexibility values of different investment strategies. A 33‐bus system is used to verify the effectiveness of the formulated model. Results indicate that flexibility values of BESS are of utmost importance to DNP under demand growth uncertainties. It provides an analytical tool to quantify the flexibility of planning measures and evaluate the well‐timed investment of BESS, thus supporting network operators to facilitate flexibility services and hedge risks from the negative impact of long‐term uncertainty.