Development conventions: theory and the case of Brazil in the latter half of the twentieth century
Development conventions: theory and the case of Brazil in the latter half of the twentieth century
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DOI：
10.1080/01603477.2015.1065677
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Modenesi, Rui Lyrio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Modenesi, Andre De Melo;Modenesi, Rui Lyrio
对凯恩斯来说，惯例是一种用来规避不确定性的手段。对于法国传统主义者(FCS)来说，公约协调了复杂市场情况下的行为。巴西经济学家法比奥·埃尔伯提出了发展公约的概念，从而使发展中国家的经济学家和政策制定者对这一主题特别感兴趣，从而为这场辩论做出了贡献。因为发展指的是长期的结构变化，所以要从长期来确定发展中的发展中国家。此外，在一个特定的社会中，多个DC可以共存；然而，在任何特定的时间点，只有一个可以是霸权或主导的。可以通过考察与那个社会有关的历史证据来揭示DC。因此，本文分析了巴西在20世纪下半叶的发展经验。在巴西，两种类型的DC之间一直在争夺霸权：支持增长的国家主导的DC和支持稳定的自由市场DC。从第二次世界大战到20世纪70年代，前DC是霸权的，但后来被支持稳定的自由市场DC所取代。巴西自上世纪90年代以来的保守货币政策，是建立在《稳定公约》的霸权基础上的。这种视角为一个以政治经济学为基础的研究项目创造了空间，该项目致力于研究巴西当代货币政策，这有助于解释为什么巴西在这么长时间内一直保持世界最高利率。
For Keynes, convention is a device used to circumvent uncertainty. For French conventionalists (FCs), convention coordinates behavior in complex market situations. Brazilian economist Fabio Erber contributed to this debate by formulating a concept of development convention (DC) and thus making this subject particularly interesting to economists and policymakers in developing countries. Because development refers to long-term structural changes, DCs are identified over the long term. Further, multiple DCs can coexist in a given society; however, only one can be hegemonic or dominant at any particular point in time. DCs can be revealed by examining the historical evidence pertaining to that society. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the Brazilian development experience during the latter half of the twentieth century. There has been a struggle for hegemony between two types of DCs in Brazil: the pro-growth state-led DC and the pro-stability free-market DC. From World War II until the 1970s, the former DC was hegemonic, but it has since been replaced by the pro-stability free-market DC. The conservative conduct of monetary policy in Brazil since the 1990s has been built on the hegemony of the stability convention. This perspective has created space for a research program based on political economy and devoted to the study of Brazilian contemporary monetary policy, which helps explain why Brazil has consistently maintained the world's highest interest rates for so long.