Probability of Streamflow Permanence Model (PROSPER): A spatially continuous model of annual streamflow permanence throughout the Pacific Northwest
Probability of Streamflow Permanence Model (PROSPER): A spatially continuous model of annual streamflow permanence throughout the Pacific Northwest
复制标题
水流持久性模型的概率 (PROSPER)：整个太平洋西北地区年度水流持久性的空间连续模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.hydroa.2018.100005
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
K. Blasch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kristin L. Jaeger;Roy Sando;R. McShane;Jason B. Dunham;D. Hockman;K. Kaiser;Konrad C. Hafen;J. Risley;K. Blasch
美国地质调查局（USGS）开发了一种基于GIS栅格的经验模型，可提供径流持久性概率（概率预测）在太平洋西北地区的任何不受管制和最小受损的河流通道，该模型根据每月或每年更新的气候条件和与上游流域相关的静态自然地理变量值，以30米的空间分辨率提供2004-2016年的年度预测。预测对应于与中等分辨率国家水文数据集水道网络流网格一致的水道网络上的任何像素。年降水量和森林覆盖率始终是全球和大多数次区域模型中最重要的预测变量，误差率在17%和22%之间。概率转换为湿和干径流永久性类与相关的信心。湿和干的分类被用来推导出描述符，其特征的统计和空间分布的径流永久性在三个焦点流域。预测的干河道段占52-92%的河流网络在三个焦点盆地;径流持久性下降，在气候干燥的年份。预测结果可通过USGS StreamStats平台公开获取。结果表明，PROSPER模型作为一种工具，用于确定可能是弹性或敏感的干旱条件下，允许管理工作，目标是保护关键河段的效用。重要的是，PROSPER的成功的预测性能，可以提高新的数据集的径流持久性强调的重要性，实地观察。
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004–2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset channel network stream grid. Total annual precipitation and percent forest cover were consistently the most important predictor variables among global and most subregional models, which had error rates between 17 and 22%. Probabilities were converted to wet and dry streamflow permanence classes with an associated confidence. Wet and dry classifications were used to derive descriptors that characterize the statistical and spatial distribution of streamflow permanence in three focal basins. Predicted dry channel segments account for 52–92% of the stream network across the three focal basins; streamflow permanence decreased during climatically drier years. Predictions are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform. Results demonstrate the utility of the PROSPER model as a tool for identifying areas that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for management efforts that target protecting critical reaches. Importantly, PROSPER’s successful predictive performance can be improved with new datasets of streamflow permanence underscoring the importance of field observations.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Jensen, Carrie K.;McGuire, Kevin J.;Prince, Philip S.
通讯作者：
Prince, Philip S.