Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control.
Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control.
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-072x-10-35
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发表时间：
2011-05-18
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Beier JC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Le Comber SC;Rossmo DK;Hassan AN;Fuller DO;Beier JC
地理特征分析是最初在犯罪学中开发的一种统计工具，用于在连环犯罪案件中优先考虑大量嫌疑人。在这里，我们使用两个数据集-一个历史的和一个现代的-来展示它如何被用来定位传染病的来源。首先，我们重新分析了一个经典的流行病学研究，1854年伦敦霍乱爆发的数据。使用321个疾病站点作为输入，我们评估了13个社区水泵的位置。Broad Street泵-爆发的源头-排名第一，位于地理概况的前0.2%。我们扩展了我们的研究，分析了埃及开罗报告的疟疾病例，使用139个疾病病例地点对59个蚊子源的当地水源进行了排名，其中7个水源对媒介斯氏按蚊检测呈阳性。地理分析将这七个地点中的六个地点排在第1-6位，均位于地理概况的前2%。在这两项分析中，该方法的表现优于其他空间集中趋势指标。我们认为，地理分析可以形成一个有用的组成部分，综合控制战略，涉及到各种传染病，因为循证干预措施的目标是更有效的，环境友好型和成本效益比无针对性的干预。
Geographic profiling is a statistical tool originally developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime. Here, we use two data sets - one historical and one modern - to show how it can be used to locate the sources of infectious disease. First, we re-analyse data from a classic epidemiological study, the 1854 London cholera outbreak. Using 321 disease sites as input, we evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump - the outbreak's source- ranks first, situated in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. We extend our study with an analysis of reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector Anopheles sergentii. Geographic profiling ranks six of these seven sites in positions 1-6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. In both analyses the method outperformed other measures of spatial central tendency. We suggest that geographic profiling could form a useful component of integrated control strategies relating to a wide variety of infectious diseases, since evidence-based targeting of interventions is more efficient, environmentally friendly and cost-effective than untargeted intervention.