Evaluation and Bayesian dynamic prediction of deterioration of structural performance
Evaluation and Bayesian dynamic prediction of deterioration of structural performance
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DOI：
10.1080/15732470701478503
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发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Jian Wang;Xi-la Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jian Wang;Xi-la Liu
结构性能退化是一个时变过程，具有大量的不确定性和荷载及环境效应的不完全性。似乎不可避免的是，结构恶化的预测应该基于信息更新的哲学。基于贝叶斯动态线性模型（DLM）理论，提出了一种新的结构性能预测模型体系。该系统可以实现对结构劣化时间序列过程预测的贝叶斯更新。它能有效地通过结构的劣化过程吸收有用的信息来更新预测。干预和监测技术也被设计用于确保模型系统的稳定性。本文还定义了一个所谓的“状态指数”的指标来评估结构的性能。利用状态指标，可以将当前工程实践中基于目视检查的结构性能定性状态评级集成到贝叶斯DLM中。案例研究验证了贝叶斯DLMs的优势。信息的更新对可靠性分析和寿命预测具有良好的效果。条件指标简单，便于实际应用.
The deterioration of structural performance is a time-variant process with a large amount of uncertainties and incompleteness of load and environmental effects. It seems inevitable that the prediction of structural deterioration should be based on a philosophy of information updating. In the present paper, a new model system for structural performance prediction is introduced based on Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM) theory. The system can implement Bayesian updating on the prediction of the time series process of structural deterioration. It can effectively incorporate useful information through the deterioration process of structures to update the prediction. Intervention and monitoring techniques are also designed to ensure the stability of the model system. This paper also defines an indicator of the so-called ‘condition index’ to evaluate the structural performance. Using condition indexes, the qualitative condition rating of structural performance based on visual inspection in current engineering practice can be integrated into the Bayesian DLMs. Case studies validate the advantages of Bayesian DLMs. The information updating has a favourable effect on reliability analysis and life prediction. The condition indexes are simple and convenient used in practice.