Parameterized Wildfire Fragility Functions for Overhead Power Line Conductors
Parameterized Wildfire Fragility Functions for Overhead Power Line Conductors
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DOI：
10.1109/tpwrs.2023.3298769
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发表时间：
2024-03
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Mostafa Nazemi;P. Dehghanian;Y. Darestani;Jinshun Su
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mostafa Nazemi;P. Dehghanian;Y. Darestani;Jinshun Su
最近，野火越来越频繁地对电力输送基础设施的安全性和可靠性构成重大威胁，需要制定专门的风险和脆弱性评估框架。脆弱性函数是概率风险评估的基本工具，用于估计系统组件的故障可能性作为危险强度的函数。架空电力线导体广泛暴露于环境和大气压力源，是最容易受到野火逼近的电力输送基础设施之一。除了最先进的脆弱性模型，本文提出了新的参数化野火脆弱性函数，可以捕捉不同的环境条件和野火的严重性措施对架空电力线导体的影响。在这样做的过程中，野火的行为进行了全面的特点，以模拟在架空导线的温度变化，在面对不断发展的野火。一种新的参数脆弱性模型，它是一组物理和环境特征的函数（例如，导线高度、地形坡度、燃料干燥度、燃料深度、风速、火焰长度），然后建议在给定允许的安全导线温升的情况下评估导线的故障可能性。一组火特征（例如，火线强度，火灾蔓延速度，和接近导体的火灾角度）被嵌入到拟议的脆弱性模型，以捕捉野火的不确定性。数值结果表明，不同于常用的脆弱性模型，所提出的参数化脆弱性函数能够准确地表示关键的物理，环境和火灾特征的影响，在确定配电线路面临野火紧急情况时的脆弱性。
Wildfires have been, recently more-frequently, posing significant threats to the safety and reliability of electric power delivery infrastructure, calling for the development of dedicated risk and vulnerability assessment frameworks. Fragility functions are essential tools for probabilistic risk assessment to estimate the failure likelihood of the system components as a function of hazard intensity. Widely exposed to the environment and atmospheric stressors, overhead power line conductors are among the most susceptible electric delivery infrastructure to approaching wildfires. Beyond the state-of-the-art fragility models, this article proposes novel parameterized wildfire fragility functions that can capture the impact of different environmental conditions and wildfire severity measures on overhead power line conductors. In doing so, wildfire behaviour is comprehensively characterized in order to model the temperature change in overhead conductors in the face of progressing wildfires. A novel parametric fragility model, which is a function of a set of physical and environmental features (e.g., conductor height, landscape slope, the dryness of fuel, fuel depth, wind speed, flame length), is then suggested to assess the failure likelihood of conductors given a permissible safety conductor temperature rise. A set of fire features (e.g., fire line intensity, fire rate of spread, and the angle of the fire approaching the conductors) is embedded in the proposed fragility model to capture the wildfire uncertainties. The numerical results reveal that, unlike the commonly-used fragility models, the proposed parameterized fragility function is able to accurately represent the impact of critical physical, environmental, and fire features in determining the vulnerability of power distribution lines when facing wildfire emergencies.