Persistent Deficits, Growth and Indeterminacy: The Golden Rule of Public Finance Revisited
Persistent Deficits, Growth and Indeterminacy: The Golden Rule of Public Finance Revisited
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持续赤字、增长和不确定性：重新审视公共财政的黄金法则
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Villieu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Minea;P. Villieu
在本文中，我们寻找长期和短期的财政赤字对经济增长的影响。本文将巴罗（Barro，1990）的生产性公共支出内生增长模型推广到了赤字和债务的情形。该模型显示了长期平衡增长路径的多样性（高增长和低增长稳态），以及过渡路径的可能不确定性，这可能与实证文献一致，表现出强烈的非线性经济增长的财政赤字的反应。在非常一般的假设下，我们的模型表明，“公共财政的黄金法则”，它允许政府运行赤字，只有当这个赤字是专门用于公共投资，导致一个较低的平衡增长路径从长远来看。另一方面，在短期内，根据多重性，公共赤字冲动的影响取决于公共债务的初始水平。从高增长的稳定状态开始，经济增长率最初可能会增加;因此，赤字融资的生产性公共支出增加的福利效应取决于参数。从低增长稳定状态开始，公共赤字冲动的影响取决于对公共债务可持续性的预期。JEL分类：H62，H63，E62
In this paper, we look for long run and short run effects of fiscal deficits on economic growth. We extend the Barro (1990) endogenous growth model with productive public spending to public deficit and debt. The model shows a multiplicity of long run balanced growth paths (a high-growth and a low-growth steady states), and a possible indeterminacy of the transition path, which may be consistent with empirical literature that exhibits strong non-linear responses of economic growth to fiscal deficits. Under very general hypothesis , our model shows that the “Golden Rule of Public Finance”, which allows a government to run a deficit , only if this deficit is devoted to public investment, leads to a lower balanced growth path in the long run. In the short run, on the other hand, according to multiplicity, the effect of public deficit impulses depends on the initial level of public debt. Starting from the high-growth steady state, the rate of economic growth may initially increase; thus the welfare effect of a deficit-financed increase in productive public expenditures depends on parameters. Starting from the low-growth steady state, the effect of a public deficit impulse is subjected to expectations on public debt sustainability. JEL classification: H62, H63, E62