Future Flood Hazard Assessment for the City of Pamplona (Spain) Using an Ensemble of Climate Change Projections
Future Flood Hazard Assessment for the City of Pamplona (Spain) Using an Ensemble of Climate Change Projections
复制标题
使用气候变化预测集合对潘普洛纳市（西班牙）未来洪水灾害进行评估
DOI：
10.3390/w13060792
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
E. Caporali
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Lompi;L. Mediero;E. Caporali
了解设计地表和洪水在未来将如何变化对于洪水管理计划的决策至关重要。本研究提供了一种量化潘普洛纳市流域规模未来水力风险预期变化的方法。它考虑了由 12 个气候模型、7 个重现期、2 个排放情景（代表性浓度路径 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5）和 3 个时间窗口（2011-2040、2041-2070 和 2070-2100）提供的气候变化预测。实时交互式流域模拟器（RIBS）分布式水文模型用于模拟流域尺度的降雨径流过程。结果表明，在三个时间窗口内，两个 RCP 的重现期小于 10 年的设计峰值流量有所减少，而 500 年和 1000 年一遇的洪水则有所增加。排放情景 RCP 8.5 通常提供洪水分位数的最大增量。 RCP 8.5 的设计峰值流量增加几乎比 RCP 4.5 高 10-30%。最极端事件的变化幅度似乎与每个 RCP 中的温室气体排放预测相关，因为 RCP 4.5 的最大预期变化出现在 2040 年，RCP 8.5 的预期变化出现在 2100 年。
Understanding how the design hyetographs and floods will change in the future is essential for decision making in flood management plans. This study provides a methodology to quantify the expected changes in future hydraulic risks at the catchment scale in the city of Pamplona. It considers climate change projections supplied by 12 climate models, 7 return periods, 2 emission scenarios (representative concentration pathway RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and 3 time windows (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2070–2100). The Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model is used to simulate rainfall-runoff processes at the catchment scale. The results point to a decrease in design peak discharges for return periods smaller than 10 years and an increase for the 500- and 1000-year floods for both RCPs in the three time windows. The emission scenario RCP 8.5 usually provides the greatest increases in flood quantiles. The increase of design peak discharges is almost 10–30% higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. Change magnitudes for the most extreme events seem to be related to the greenhouse gas emission predictions in each RCP, as the greatest expected changes are found in 2040 for the RCP 4.5 and in 2100 for the RCP 8.5.