Net zero in the heating sector: Technological options and environmental sustainability from now to 2050
Net zero in the heating sector: Technological options and environmental sustainability from now to 2050
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enconman.2021.113838
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发表时间：
2021-02
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Peter C. Slorach;Laurence Stamford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peter C. Slorach;Laurence Stamford
建筑物内的供暖和热水几乎占全球能源消耗的四分之一。大约 90% 的热量直接来自化石燃料（主要是天然气）的燃烧，导致二氧化碳排放有增无减。本文评估了一系列供暖技术和场景在生命周期的基础上的环境可持续性。考虑的主要技术是天然气锅炉、空气源热泵、氢气锅炉和直接电加热器。这些情景以英国为例，因为其作为主要经济体的地位，具有法律约束力的 2050 年净零碳目标；他们考虑了未来可能的电力和天然气组合，包括国内页岩气的潜在增长。环境影响是使用 ReCiPe 2016 进行估算的。当前的燃气锅炉对气候变化的影响为 220 克二氧化碳当量/千瓦时的热量，对于使用碳捕获天然气中的氢气作为燃料的锅炉，这一影响可能降至 64 克二氧化碳当量/千瓦时。来自电动空气源热泵的热量或来自电解的氢气可以通过脱碳电力组合实现净零排放，但电解的能源需求是所有选项中最高的，这导致 19 个类别中的 17 个类别的影响最大。尽管碳排放量较高，燃气锅炉仍然是 12 个类别中影响最低的选择，因为它们避免了与发电相关的影响，包括金属枯竭、毒性和富营养化。到 2050 年，最佳表现情景是供暖组合对气候变化的影响下降 95%；这是通过优先考虑不使用氢氟碳制冷剂的电动空气源热泵以及减少需求来实现的。结果表明，如果能够克服基础设施和财务挑战，就有几种可行的供暖脱碳策略，其中热泵提供了这里考虑的最环保的选择。然而，与天然气锅炉相比，可再生电力需求的增加可能会加剧一些环境影响。
Heating and hot water within buildings account for almost a quarter of global energy consumption. Approximately 90% of this heat is derived directly from the combustion of fossil fuels, primarily natural gas, leading to the unabated emission of carbon dioxide. This paper assesses the environmental sustainability of a range of heating technologies and scenarios on a life cycle basis. The major technologies considered are natural gas boilers, air source heat pumps, hydrogen boilers and direct electric heaters. The scenarios use the UK as an example due to its status as a major economy with a legally-binding net-zero carbon target for 2050; they consider plausible future electricity and natural gas mixes, including the potential growth of domestic shale gas. The environmental impacts are estimated using ReCiPe 2016. Current gas boilers have a climate change impact of 220 g CO2eq./kWh of heat, which could fall to 64 g CO2eq./kWh for boilers fuelled by hydrogen derived from natural gas with carbon capture. Heat from electric air source heat pumps or hydrogen from electrolysis can achieve net zero with a decarbonised electricity mix, but electrolysis has the highest energy demand of all options which leads to the highest impacts across 17 of the 19 categories. Despite their high carbon emissions, gas boilers remain the lowest impact option across 12 categories as they avoid the impacts related to electricity generation, including metal depletion, toxicities and eutrophication. By 2050, the best performing scenario sees the climate change impact of the heating mix fall by 95%; this is achieved by prioritising electric air source heat pumps without hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants, alongside demand reduction. The results show that, if infrastructure and financial challenges can be overcome, there are several viable decarbonisation strategies for heating, with heat pumps offering the most environmentally sustainable option of those considered here. However, increased renewable electricity demand may worsen some environmental impacts compared to natural gas boilers.