Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise
Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo1052
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Hock, Regine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Radic, Valentina;Hock, Regine
过去几十年来，高山冰川和冰帽对海平面上升的影响越来越大。尽管有迹象表明冰盖的加速损耗（3-5），但预计至少在另一个世纪内，它们仍将是海平面上升的重要组成部分（1、2）。然而，很难预测这些小规模冰川未来在全球范围内对海平面上升的贡献。在这里，我们项目的体积变化，由于融化的瞬态，空间差异的21世纪的温度和降水量的预测，从10个全球气候模式。我们直接对世界冰川清单中现有的120，000多个冰川进行模拟，并将变化扩大到19个地区，这些地区包含世界上所有的山地冰川和冰盖（不包括格陵兰岛和南极冰盖）。根据我们的多模型平均值，到2100年，冰川流失造成的海平面上升将达到0.124 +/- 0.037米，其中加拿大北极、阿拉斯加和南极洲的冰川造成的影响最大。冰川总体积将减少21 +/-6%，但一些地区预计将失去目前冰量的75%。如此规模的冰损失可能会对区域水文和水供应产生重大影响（7）。
The contribution to sea-level rise from mountain glaciers and ice caps has grown over the past decades. They are expected to remain an important component of eustatic sea-level rise for at least another century(1,2), despite indications of accelerated wastage of the ice sheets(3-5). However, it is difficult to project the future contribution of these small-scale glaciers to sea-level rise on a global scale. Here, we project their volume changes due to melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models. We conduct the simulations directly on the more than 120,000 glaciers now available in the World Glacier Inventory(6), and upscale the changes to 19 regions that contain all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the world (excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets). According to our multi-model mean, sea-level rise from glacier wastage by 2100 will amount to 0.124 +/- 0.037 m, with the largest contribution from glaciers in Arctic Canada, Alaska and Antarctica. Total glacier volume will be reduced by 21 +/- 6%, but some regions are projected to lose up to 75% of their present ice volume. Ice losses on such a scale may have substantial impacts on regional hydrology and water availability(7).