Risk Analysis of PPP Urban Railway Projects in Asia
Risk Analysis of PPP Urban Railway Projects in Asia
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亚洲PPP城市铁路项目风险分析
DOI：
10.11175/easts.13.482
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shigeru MORICHI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hidetoshi MATSUSHITA;Shigeru MORICHI
亚洲大多数PPP城市铁路项目都没有成功。我们对这些项目的原因和风险进行了定性分析。本文旨在从这些失败案例中汲取经验教训，为亚洲地区新建城市轨道交通项目方案提供借鉴。本文以曼谷蓝线、马尼拉捷运3号线及高雄地铁为研究对象，对每项风险进行量化分析，以了解改善这些风险的优先顺序。本文通过查阅相关文献，分析财务和运营数据，识别项目中遇到的各种风险和风险分配，并建立项目的财务模型，以量化展示这些风险所造成的影响。最后，针对其中最具影响力的问题提出了思考，并提出了一系列改进建议。
Most PPP urban railway projects in Asia have not succeeded. We have analyzed the reasons and risks of these projects qualitatively. The purpose of this paper is to get lessons from these failures and to know the information of better project scheme for new urban railway in Asia. In this paper we make quantitative analysis on each risk focusing on the Blue Line in Bangkok, the MRT Line 3 in Manila and the Kaohsiung Metro to understand the priority of improvement for these risks. Upon review of related literature and analysis of financial and operational data, this paper identifies various risks encountered and the risks allocation in the projects and prepares financial model of the projects to demonstrate the quantitative impacts caused by said risks. Finally, the paper provides the considerations focusing on the most influential issues and concludes with a series of suggestions to improve the projects.