Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement
Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-023-06390-0
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发表时间：
2023-08-23
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Machado, Guilherme B. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gatti, Luciana V.;Cunha, Camilla L.;Machado, Guilherme B. M.
亚马逊森林碳汇正在减少，主要是由于土地使用和气候变化（1-4）。在这里，我们调查了与2019年和2020年相比，2010年至2018年环境保护政策执法的变化如何影响亚马逊的碳平衡，基于大气二氧化碳垂直分布（5，6），森林砍伐（7）和火灾数据（8），以及与非法森林砍伐有关的违规通知（9）。我们估计亚马逊的碳排放量从2010-2018年的平均0.24 +/- 0.08 PgC年（-1）增加到2019年的0.44 +/- 0.10 PgC年-1和2020年的0.52 +/- 0.10 PgC年（-1）（+/-不确定性）。与2010-2018年的平均值相比，2019年和2020年观察到的森林砍伐增加了82%和77%（准确率为94%），烧毁面积分别增加了14%和42%。我们发现，二零一九年及二零二零年违反植物群的通知数目分别减少30%及54%，而罚款则分别减少74%及89%。2019-2020年期间的碳损失与创纪录的温暖厄尔尼诺（2015-2016年）相当，没有极端干旱事件。统计检验表明，2010 - 2018年平均值与2019-2020年平均值之间观察到的差异不太可能是偶然出现的。2019-2020年亚马逊河流域碳预算的变化主要是因为亚马逊河流域西部成为碳源。我们的研究结果表明，执法力度的下降导致森林砍伐、生物质燃烧和森林退化的增加，这增加了碳排放，加剧了亚马逊森林的干燥和变暖。
The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change(1-4). Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles(5,6), deforestation(7) and fire data(8), as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation(9). We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 +/- 0.08 PgC year(-1) in 2010-2018 to 0.44 +/- 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2019 and 0.52 +/- 0.10 PgC year(-1) in 2020 (+/- uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010-2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019-2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Nino (2015-2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 20102018 mean and 2019-2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019-2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.