ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND THE SPREAD OF VIRAL DISEASES: EVIDENCE FROM HIGH FREQUENCY DATA
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND THE SPREAD OF VIRAL DISEASES: EVIDENCE FROM HIGH FREQUENCY DATA
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DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjw005
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Adda, Jerome
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Adda, Jerome
病毒是对人类健康的主要威胁，而且考虑到它们通过社会互动传播，代表着代价高昂的外部性。本文讨论了三个主要问题：（一）经济活动对感染传播的意外后果是什么;（二）限制人际接触的措施有多有效;（三）我们如何分配稀缺的资源来限制感染传播？为了回答这些问题，我们使用了来自法国的新的高频率数据，这些数据是关于世纪以来不同年龄组的许多病毒性疾病在太空中的发病率。我们使用准实验变异来评估政策的重要性，减少人际接触，如学校关闭或关闭公共交通网络。虽然这些政策大大降低了疾病流行率，但我们发现它们不具有成本效益。我们发现，交通网络的扩张有显着的健康成本，增加病毒的传播，传播率是亲周期的经济条件敏感，并增加与区域间的贸易。
Viruses are a major threat to human health, and-given that they spread through social interactions-represent a costly externality. This article addresses three main questions: (i) what are the unintended consequences of economic activity on the spread of infections; (ii) how efficient are measures that limit interpersonal contacts; (iii) how do we allocate our scarce resources to limit the spread of infections? To answer these questions, we use novel high frequency data from France on the incidence of a number of viral diseases across space, for different age groups, over a quarter of a century. We use quasi-experimental variation to evaluate the importance of policies reducing interpersonal contacts such as school closures or the closure of public transportation networks. While these policies significantly reduce disease prevalence, we find that they are not cost-effective. We find that expansions of transportation networks have significant health costs in increasing the spread of viruses, and that propagation rates are pro-cyclically sensitive to economic conditions and increase with inter-regional trade.