What is Random? Chance and Order in Mathematics and Life
What is Random? Chance and Order in Mathematics and Life
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什么是随机？
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发表时间：
2002
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Grace Chan
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作者：
Grace Chan
该死的谎言和统计数据是为所有好公民而写的。其中包括政府官员和社会活动家，他们创建、呈现和使用统计数据来支持他们的论点；报道统计数据的记者；以及在做出决定或投票时受到统计数据影响的公众。还有其他几本针对非技术读者的此类好书；例如，Huff (1954) 的经典作品以及最近的 Hooke (1983)。贝斯特用许多有趣的例子来证明他的观点。有关统计及其使用的许多问题的根源在于无法计算。不懂计算会导致人们犯错误，例如选择不具有代表性的样本、做出不切实际和/或不合理的假设和定义，以及错误计算或误解样本统计数据。贝斯特的所有插图都源于社会或政治问题，例如犯罪统计、种族/性别歧视和人口普查调整。简介的标题是“有史以来最糟糕的社会统计数据”，暗指 1995 年发表的一份声明，即自 1950 年以来，被枪杀的儿童人数每年都增加一倍。他详细讨论了这一点，指出这不可能是真的，并追溯到 1994 年发表的一份声明，即自 1950 年以来，被枪杀的儿童人数增加了一倍。两个词有多么大的不同。错误引用是第三章主题“突变统计数据”的一个例子。由于书中列出的众多原因，正确引用的统计数据也值得仔细审查。贝斯特指出，我们面临的三个方面的挑战是，统计数据经常被不假思索地引用和接受；尽管如此，当被问到时，人们并不相信统计数据或统计学家；尽管存在这些困难，社会确实需要良好的统计数据才能发挥作用。第一章“社会统计的重要性”讨论了社会问题、社会统计的兴起、计算能力、组织和社会统计以及作为社会产品的统计。关于后一个主题，我们读到：
Damned Lies and Statistics is written for all good citizens. These include government of cials and social activists who create, present, and use statistics to support their argument; journalistswho report statistics; and the general public who are in uenced by statistics when they make decisions or vote. There are several other good books of this type directed at a nontechnical audience; for example, the classic one by Huff (1954) and, more recently, Hooke (1983). Best uses many interesting examples to demonstrate his points. The source of many problems concerning statistics and their use is innumeracy. Innumeracy can lead people to commit errors such as selecting nonrepresentative samples, making unrealistic and/or unreasonable assumptions and de nitions, and miscalculating or misinterpreting sample statistics. All of Best’s illustrations have roots in either social or political issues such as crime statistics, racial/sexual discrimination, and census adjustment. The introduction is titled “The Worst Social Statistic Ever,” alluding to a 1995 published statement that the number of children gunned down has doubled every year since 1950. He discusses this at length, pointing out how it cannot possibly be true and tracing its origin to a 1994 published statement that the number of children gunned down has doubled since 1950. What a difference two words makes. The misquote is an example of a “mutant statistic,” the topic of Chapter 3. The correctly quoted statistic deserves a lot of scrutiny as well, for numerous reasons that are laid out in the book. Best points out that the three-faceted challenge we face is that statistics are often quoted and accepted withoutmuch thought;that nonetheless, when asked, people don’t trust statistics or statisticians; and that in spite of these dif culties, society really needs good statistics to function. Chapter 1, “The Importance of Social Statistics,” discusses social problems, the rise of social statistics, innumeracy, organizations and of cial statistics, and statistics as social products. On the latter topic, we read: