Economic factors and suicide rates: associations over time in four countries
Economic factors and suicide rates: associations over time in four countries
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DOI：
10.1007/s00127-010-0275-2
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Priebe, Stefan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ceccherini-Nelli, Alfonso;Priebe, Stefan
仅在美国，每年就有3万多人死于自杀。自杀率随着时间的推移而变化，而影响自杀率的因素仍然知之甚少。经济因素，特别是失业，被认为是一个主要的影响。然而，这方面的证据并不一致，部分原因可能是所使用的统计方法存在缺陷。采用时间序列分析技术（单位根和协整检验）来检验英国（1901-2006年）、美国（1900-1997年）、法国（1970-2004年）和意大利（1970-2001年）国家机构收集的经济因素（即失业率、实际人均国内生产总值（RGDP）和消费者价格指数（CPI））与自杀死亡率之间随时间的关联。在适当的时候使用传统的相关分析。协整和相关检验显示，经济因素与自杀率之间存在长期关联。在很长的历史时期和不同的国家，失业的增加/减少预示着自杀率的增加/减少。RGDP和CPI也与自杀率有关，但这种关系并不总是如此，而且这种关系的方向也各不相同。失业是长期影响自杀率的一个主要因素，在不同的国家情况下都是如此。在评估自杀预防策略时，它需要被视为一个混杂因素。
Suicides account for more than 30,000 deaths per year in the US alone. Suicide rates change over time, and the factors influencing them remain poorly understood. Economic factors, in particular unemployment, have been suggested as a major influence. However, the evidence for this has been inconsistent, which may be partly explained by shortcomings of the statistical methods used.Time series analytical techniques (unit root and co-integration tests) were applied to test the associations over time between economic factors, i.e. unemployment, real gross domestic product per capita (RGDP) and the consumer price index (CPI) and death rates by suicide as collected by national agencies in the UK (1901-2006), US (1900-1997), France (1970-2004) and Italy (1970-2001). Traditional correlation analyses were used when appropriate.Co-integration and correlation tests showed a long-run association between economic factors and suicide rates. Increase/decrease of unemployment predicted an increase/decrease of suicide rates over long historical periods and in different nations. RGDP and the CPI were also linked with suicide rates, but this was not consistently so and the direction of the association varied.Unemployment is a major factor influencing suicide rates over long periods of time and in different national contexts. It needs to be considered as a confounding factor in evaluations of suicide prevention strategies.