Risk factors for bovine Tuberculosis at the national level in Great Britain
Risk factors for bovine Tuberculosis at the national level in Great Britain
复制标题
英国国家级牛结核病的危险因素
作者：
P. Bessell;R. Orton;P. White;M. R. Hutchings;R. Kao
背景英国（GB）牛结核病（bTB）高发区的持续扩大引发了有关牛群水平感染决定因素的一系列问题，这些决定因素正在推动该疾病的传播。在这里，我们开发了风险因素模型来量化牛群规模、从爱尔兰进口的牛、bTB 的历史、獾和牛的重新放养在确定 bTB 发病率方面的重要性。我们比较了这些不同风险因素在高发区和低发区的重要性（根据教区测试间隔确定）。结果大型牛群和育肥牛群在所有地区都更有可能崩溃。在感知风险较低（测试间隔较长）的地区，崩溃的风险很大程度上取决于牛群从高发地区购买的动物数量。相反，在感知风险较高的区域（测试间隔较短），故障风险由疾病史和獾发生概率来定义。尽管英国不同国家（英格兰、威尔士和苏格兰）的 bTB 管理存在差异，但考虑到这些其他因素后，我们发现国家一级的 bTB 风险没有显着差异。结论本文表明，不同类型的农场都面临崩溃的风险，而且最重要的风险因素根据一个地区的 bTB 发病率而有所不同。结果表明，通过以低发病率地区的牛群为目标，从高发病率地区进口最多数量的牛，可以在bTB控制方面取得显着成果。
BackgroundThe continuing expansion of high incidence areas of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain (GB) raises a number of questions concerning the determinants of infection at the herd level that are driving spread of the disease. Here, we develop risk factor models to quantify the importance of herd sizes, cattle imports from Ireland, history of bTB, badgers and cattle restocking in determining bTB incidence. We compare the significance of these different risk factors in high and low incidence areas (as determined by parish testing intervals).ResultsLarge herds and fattening herds are more likely to breakdown in all areas. In areas with lower perceived risk (longer testing intervals), the risk of breaking down is largely determined by the number of animals that a herd buys in from high incidence areas. In contrast, in higher perceived risk areas (shorter testing intervals), the risk of breakdown is defined by the history of disease and the probability of badger occurrence. Despite differences in the management of bTB across different countries of GB (England, Wales and Scotland), we found no significant differences in bTB risk at the national level after these other factors had been taken into account.ConclusionsThis paper demonstrates that different types of farm are at risk of breakdown and that the most important risk factors vary according to bTB incidence in an area. The results suggest that significant gains in bTB control could be made by targeting herds in low incidence areas that import the greatest number of cattle from high incidence areas.