Survival in export markets
Survival in export markets
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.05.003
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发表时间：
2016-09-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Hallak, Juan Carlos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Albornoz, Facundo;Fanelli, Sebastian;Hallak, Juan Carlos
本文探讨了企业在出口市场中生存的决定因素。我们建立了一个出口商动态模型，企业需要支付特定市场的沉没成本和固定成本在国外经营，企业在每个外国市场的出口盈利能力遵循几何布朗运动。公司也通过一个恒定的特定于市场的盈利能力转移而事先不同。我们得出的出口生存的概率进入市场，并表明，它增加沉没固定成本的比率，是不敏感的盈利能力的转变。此外，我们表明，生存概率是不受固定成本，如果沉没成本为零。我们采取模型的数据，使用公司层面的阿根廷出口信息。我们发现，生存率随着距离的增加而降低，模型合理化与沉没成本，随着距离的增加比例小于固定成本。估计沉没成本很小。事实上，一项反事实的研究表明，去除这些成本后，总出口增长不到1.5%。最后，我们还发现，生存增加与企业的出口经验。类似于距离，该模型的这一经验结果的含义是，经验减少沉没成本的比例低于固定成本。(C)2016爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
This paper explores the determinants of firm survival in export markets. We build an exporter dynamics model where firms need to pay market-specific sunk and fixed costs to operate abroad and where firm export profitability in each foreign market follows a geometric Brownian motion. Firms also differ ex ante by a constant market-specific profitability shifter. We derive the probability of export survival upon entry in a market and show that it increases with the ratio of sunk to fixed costs and is insensitive to the profitability shifters. Also, we show that the survival probability is unaffected by fixed costs if sunk costs are zero. We take the model to the data using firm-level Argentine export information. We find that survival rates decrease with distance, which the model rationalizes with sunk costs that increase with distance proportionally less than fixed costs. Estimated sunk costs are small. In fact, a counterfactual exercise shows that removing those costs increases aggregate exports by less than 1.5%. Finally, we also find that survival increases with a firm's export experience. Analogously to distance, the model's implication of this empirical result is that experience reduces sunk costs proportionally less than fixed costs. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.