Age-stratified discrete compartment model of the COVID-19 epidemic with application to Switzerland.
Age-stratified discrete compartment model of the COVID-19 epidemic with application to Switzerland.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-77420-4
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发表时间：
2020-12-04
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Mohr D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Balabdaoui F;Mohr D
区隔模型能够分析和预测流行病，包括人口中感染、住院和死亡的人数。它们允许对非药物干预措施进行计算案例研究，从而为政策制定者提供重要依据。虽然对SARS-CoV-2冠状病毒传播动力学的研究正在进行中，但重要的是提出能够描述相关新冠肺炎呼吸道疾病进展的主要阶段的流行病模型。我们提出了一个年龄分层的离散房室模型来替代基于微分方程的S-I-R型模型。该模型捕捉到了新冠肺炎高度依赖于年龄的进展过程，并能够描述现代医疗体系中受感染个体的逐日进展。瑞士的完全确定的模型不仅预测了感染、住院和死亡人数的总体历史，而且还预测了相应的年龄分布。基于模型的暴发分析显示，平均感染病死率为0.4%，80岁以上的 ≥ 患者的最高感染病死率为9.5%。对放松软封锁的不同情景的预测表明，通过第二波感染使医院超负荷的风险很低。然而，如果学校重新开学而没有采取足够的遏制措施，则存在总死亡人数大幅增加(高达200%)的隐藏风险。
Compartmental models enable the analysis and prediction of an epidemic including the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased individuals in a population. They allow for computational case studies on non-pharmaceutical interventions thereby providing an important basis for policy makers. While research is ongoing on the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to come up with epidemic models that can describe the main stages of the progression of the associated COVID-19 respiratory disease. We propose an age-stratified discrete compartment model as an alternative to differential equation based S-I-R type of models. The model captures the highly age-dependent progression of COVID-19 and is able to describe the day-by-day advancement of an infected individual in a modern health care system. The fully-identified model for Switzerland not only predicts the overall histories of the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased, but also the corresponding age-distributions. The model-based analysis of the outbreak reveals an average infection fatality ratio of 0.4% with a pronounced maximum of 9.5% for those aged ≥ 80 years. The predictions for different scenarios of relaxing the soft lockdown indicate a low risk of overloading the hospitals through a second wave of infections. However, there is a hidden risk of a significant increase in the total fatalities (by up to 200%) in case schools reopen with insufficient containment measures in place.
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影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Jeremie, Scire;Sarah, Nadeau;Tanja, Stadler
通讯作者：
Tanja, Stadler
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Wu, Joseph T.;Leung, Kathy;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30243-7
发表时间：
2020-06-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Verity, Robert;Okell, Lucy C;Ferguson, Neil M
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Eubank, S.;Eckstrand, I;Barrett, C. L.
通讯作者：
Barrett, C. L.
影响因子：
50
作者：
Prem, Kiesha;Liu, Yang;Klepac, Petra
通讯作者：
Klepac, Petra