STATISTICAL-METHODS FOR MONITORING THE AIDS EPIDEMIC
STATISTICAL-METHODS FOR MONITORING THE AIDS EPIDEMIC
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.4780080104
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发表时间：
1989-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
DIGGLE, PJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ZEGER, SL;SEE, LC;DIGGLE, PJ
本文介绍了监测艾滋病流行的统计方法。提出了一个对数线性模型来估计艾滋病发病率及其增长率，同时考虑到病例报告的延迟。介绍了一种估计低流行亚群流行病增长率的经验贝叶斯方法。使用疾病控制中心截至1987年9月的艾滋病病例登记数据，对六个地理区域中每一个区域的七个风险群体的艾滋病发病率趋势进行了分析，说明了这些方法。分析发现，艾滋病发病率目前大约每两年翻一番，新病例的相对构成正在从诸如东北部同性恋社区等较早流行的流行病转移。
This article describes statistical methods for monitoring the epidemic of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). A log‐linear model is proposed to estimate AIDS incidence and its growth rate while taking account of delays in case reporting. An empirical Bayes approach for estimating the epidemic growth rate in low prevalence subgroups is introduced. These methods are illustrated with an analysis of AIDS incidence trends for seven risk groups in each of six geographic regions using the Centers for Disease Control AIDS case registry data as of September 1987. The analysis finds that AIDS incidence is currently doubling about once every two years and that the relative composition of new cases is shifting away from the older epidemics such as in north‐eastern homosexual communities.