Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers
Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers
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DOI：
10.1007/s10654-008-9257-z
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发表时间：
2008-08-01
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Berry, Geoffrey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gasparrini, Antonio;Pizzo, Anna Maria;Berry, Geoffrey
几篇论文报道了间皮瘤死亡的全州预测，但很少有计算这些预测在选定的暴露组。目的预测铁路机车车辆工人群体未来因石棉死亡的情况。方法对1,146名工人的未来死亡率进行了计算，根据三种不同风险的个人死亡概率：基线死亡率，肺癌过度，间皮瘤死亡率。计算归因于石棉的肺癌死亡率时，假设超额风险稳定或自首次暴露后一段时间后下降。间皮瘤死亡率是根据累积接触和自首次接触以来的时间计算的，其中包括从肺中清除石棉纤维的术语。结果2005-2050年石棉死亡人数最可能的范围是肺癌15-30人，间皮瘤23-35人。结论本研究提供了预测石棉相关的死亡率，即使在一个选定的队列暴露的受试者，使用以前的知识，关于风险-反应关系。在投影模型中包含个体信息有助于减少误分类并改善结果。该方法可以在其他选定的队列中推广。
Background Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. Objective To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. Methods The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. Results The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005-2050 was 15-30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23-35 for mesothelioma. Conclusion This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.