The Relationship between the Physical Quality of Rice and the Market Price: A Case Study in Savannakhet, Laos, Using a Bayesian Approach
The Relationship between the Physical Quality of Rice and the Market Price: A Case Study in Savannakhet, Laos, Using a Bayesian Approach
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DOI：
10.3390/su10114151
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发表时间：
2018-11
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
K. Kawamura;Hidetoshi Asai;Shintaro Kobayashi;Soukasdachanh Souvannasing;Phonevilay Sinavong;T. Inthavong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Kawamura;Hidetoshi Asai;Shintaro Kobayashi;Soukasdachanh Souvannasing;Phonevilay Sinavong;T. Inthavong
米粒的视觉特征在决定市场价格方面起着主要作用，并在许多稻米消费国用于分级系统。老挝是东南亚的一个稻米消费国，但它没有一个有效的分级系统。本研究以老挝沙湾拿吉为例，采用贝叶斯方法，探讨稻米品质与市场价格的关系。我们从12间店铺收集了30个食米样本及其市价，当中包括从泰国及越南进口的食米。使用谷粒扫描仪扫描稻米样品，并使用物理性状（长度、形状、颜色等）确定整精米率（HR，%）。根据“泰国标准”分级标准。HR比率和市场价格之间的关系用贝叶斯方法建模。老挝产品的市场价格和HR比低于泰国产品。在贝叶斯框架下，马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明：（1）泰国大米的市场价格主要由HR比值决定，但也有其他因素影响，如香味，尤其是优质大米：（2）老挝大米的市场价格与泰国大米的市场价格呈正相关，但其他因素对老挝大米的市场价格的影响要大于泰国大米;（3）越南的产品由于样品数量有限，没有发现明显的关系，这也被认为是消费者需求的差异。这些结果表明，与泰国产品相比，老挝产品的稻米质量与市场价格之间的关系是不稳定的。为了促进更加面向市场的农业部门，这项试点研究已经扩大到审查其他因素，并扩大到老挝的其他城市或地区。
The visual characteristics of rice grains play a primary role in determining the market price, and are used for grading systems in many rice-consuming countries. Laos is a rice-consuming country in Southeast Asia, but it does not have a functioning grading system. This study investigated the relationship between the physical quality of milled rice grains and the market price based on the Bayesian approach in Savannakhet, Laos. We collected 30 rice samples and their market prices from 12 shops, including imported rice from Thailand and Vietnam. The rice samples were scanned using a Grain Scanner, and the proportion of head rice (HR, %) was determined using physical traits (length, shape, color, etc.) based on the ‘Thai standard’ grading criteria. The relationship between the HR ratios and market prices was modeled with the Bayesian approach. For Laos’s product, the market price and HR ratio were lower than those for Thailand’s product. Based on the Bayesian framework, the results of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations indicated that (1) the market price of Thailand’s product was mostly determined by the HR ratio, but other factors, such as aroma, were also suggested, especially in high-quality rice grains; (2) Laos’s product showed a positive correlation, but other factors had a greater influence on Laos’s product than Thailand’s product; and (3) no clear relationship was found in Vietnam’s product due to the limitation of a small number of samples, which was also considered a difference in consumer needs. These results indicated that the relationship between rice quality and market price for Laos’s product was unstable compared to that for Thailand’s product. To promote a more market-oriented agricultural sector, this pilot study has been broadened to examine other factors and extended to other cities or regions in Laos.