An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience
An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023
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发表时间：
2023-02-21
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Lindell, Michael K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Chen;Koll, Charles;Lindell, Michael K.
以前的海啸疏散模拟大多基于任意假设或根据非紧急情况改编的输入，但少数研究使用了经验行为数据。本研究通过将当地疏散预期调查和疏散演习的经验决策数据整合到一个基于agent的疏散行为模型中，从而弥补了这一空白，该模型针对两个Cascadia俯冲带（CSZ）社区，这些社区在CSZ地震后20-40分钟内将被淹没。该模型还考虑了地震液化和滑坡对海啸疏散的影响。此外，我们从最小成本距离中整合斜坡速度分量，以建立更好地代表疏散复杂性的仿真模型。仿真结果表明，碾磨时间和疏散参与率对海啸死亡率估计有显著的非线性影响。当人们的步行速度超过1米s-1时，步行疏散更有效，因为它避免了驾驶时的交通拥堵。我们还发现，与其他行为变量相比，疏散结果对步行速度、步行时间、疏散参与和选择最近的安全地点更为敏感。最大限度地提高疏散参与率，尽量减少疏散时间，并选择离淹没区最近的安全目的地，从而使海啸死亡率降到最低。本研究将基于主体的模型与热波（BtW）模型进行比较，发现两种模型的结果一致。通过整合自然系统、建筑环境和社会系统，这个跨学科的模型将现实世界的重要方面整合到基于多危害主体的平台中。这种模式为地方当局提供了一个独特的机会，可以优先考虑将资源用于灾害教育、社区备灾和恢复力计划。
Previous tsunami evacuation simulations have mostly been based on arbitrary assumptions or inputs adapted from non-emergency situations, but a few studies have used empirical behavior data. This study bridges this gap by integrating empirical decision data from surveys on local evacuation expectations and evacuation drills into an agent-based model of evacuation behavior for two Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) communities that would be inundated within 20-40 min after a CSZ earthquake. The model also considers the impacts of liquefaction and landslides from the earthquake on tsunami evacuation. Furthermore, we integrate the slope-speed component from least-cost distance to build the simulation model that better represents the complex nature of evacuations. The simulation results indicate that milling time and the evacuation participation rate have significant nonlinear impacts on tsunami mortality estimates. When people walk faster than 1 m s-1, evacuation by foot is more effective because it avoids traffic congestion when driving. We also find that evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, milling time, evacuation participation, and choosing the closest safe location than to other behavioral variables. Minimum tsunami mortality results from maximizing the evacuation participation rate, minimizing milling time, and choosing the closest safe destination outside of the inundation zone. This study's comparison of the agent-based model and the beat-the-wave (BtW) model finds consistency between the two models' results. By integrating the natural system, built environment, and social system, this interdisciplinary model incorporates substantial aspects of the real world into the multi-hazard agent-based platform. This model provides a unique opportunity for local authorities to prioritize their resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.