ESTIMATION OF BUS ARRIVAL TIMES USING APC DATA
ESTIMATION OF BUS ARRIVAL TIMES USING APC DATA
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DOI：
10.5038/2375-0901.7.1.1
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发表时间：
2004-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jayakrishna Patnaik;S. Chien;A. Bladikas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jayakrishna Patnaik;S. Chien;A. Bladikas
公共汽车运输操作受到许多因素的随机变化的影响（例如，交通拥挤、乘客量、交叉路口延误和天气状况），这些因素可能迫使公共汽车偏离其预定的时间表和车头时距，从而导致服务质量下降和乘客等待时间延长。通过先进的旅行者信息系统为乘客提供准确的巴士到达信息可以帮助乘客做出决策（例如，推迟离家时间），减少平均等候时间。本文开发了一组回归模型，用于估计在沿着路线的两点之间行驶的公共汽车的到达时间。为开发拟议的模型所提供的数据收集的自动乘客计数器安装在公交车上运营的过境机构在美国东北部地区。所得到的结果是有希望的，并表明，开发的模型可以用来估计巴士到达时间在各种条件下。
Bus transit operations are influenced by stochastic variations in a number of factors (e.g., traffic congestion, ridership, intersection delays, and weather conditions) that can force buses to deviate from their predetermined schedule and headway, resulting in deterioration of service and the lengthening of passenger waiting times. Providing passengers with accurate bus arrival information through Advanced Traveler Information Systems can assist passengers' decision making (e.g., postpone departure time from home) and reduce average waiting time. This article develops a set of regression models that estimate arrival times for buses traveling between two points along a route. The data supplied for developing the proposed model were collected by Automatic Passenger Counters installed on buses operated by a transit agency in the northeast region of the United States. The results obtained are promising and indicate that the developed models could be used to estimate bus arrival times under various conditions.