Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Andutta, Fernando
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morim, Joao;Hemer, Mark;Andutta, Fernando
了解气候驱动对多元全球风浪气候的影响对于有效的近海/沿海气候适应规划至关重要。然而，使用单一的方法集合和不同的方法产生的变化，导致现有的全球波浪气候预测中的不确定性。在这里，评估第一个连贯的，社区驱动的，多方法集成的全球波浪气候预测，我们展示了广泛的海洋区域，在高排放情景下，年平均有效波高和平均波周期的变化为5-15%，平均波向的变化为5-15度。世界上大约50%的海岸线受到波浪气候变化的威胁，其中40%的海岸线至少有两个变量发生了强烈变化。此外，我们发现，目前预测的不确定性主要是由气候模型驱动的不确定性，单一方法的建模研究无法捕获高达50%的相关不确定性。
Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5-15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5-15 degrees, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world's coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with similar to 40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to similar to 50% of the total associated uncertainty.