Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change
Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/1365-2745.13606
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发表时间：
2021-02-21
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Rossi, Graziano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Casazza, Gabriele;Abeli, Thomas;Rossi, Graziano
气候变化的影响在地中海生物多样性热点地区尤为重要，气温上升和干旱对包括特有物种在内的几种植物类群产生了负面影响。辅助定殖（AC）是减少气候变化对受气候变化威胁的特有植物物种的影响的有用工具。我们将意大利特有的188个分类群的物种分布模型（SDM）与IUCN红名单范围损失阈值（30%）结合起来，定义：（一）AC数量（按新种群应占据的2 x 2 km网格单元测量，即网格单元=新的种群），以完全补偿预测的距离损失并将下降停止在距离损失的30%以下;（B）补偿距离损失所需的小区数量被计算为在未来气候下由于不合适的条件而损失的当前占用小区的数量。我们使用了两个代表性的浓度路径，+2.6和+8.5 W/m（2），分别为乐观和悲观的情况。在目前的物种分布和保护区内，也评估了适合AC的区域的可用性。在乐观的情况下，没有分类群将失去超过30%的范围，将不需要AC。在悲观的情况下，大约90%的分类群显示出高于30%的细胞损失。预计有8个分类群将失去>95%的分布范围。对于这些物种，AC需要从13至16个新的群体（=13-16个网格单元），每个分类单元的上限范围损失在30%。对于目前的VU或EN物种，平均32-35次AC尝试将是必要的，以完全补偿其范围损失在悲观的情况下。合适的收件人网站内的保护区属于其预计范围内确定，允许短距离AC。结合物种分布模型和红名单阈值下的标准A，使战略规划的多个物种辅助殖民最小化的努力，在新的人口创造和最大限度地保护范围损失补偿方面的利益。
Effects of climate change are particularly important in the Mediterranean Biodiversity hotspot where rising temperatures and drought are negatively affecting several plant taxa, including endemic species. Assisted colonisation (AC) represents a useful tool for reducing the effect of climate change on endemic plant species threatened by climate change.We combined species distribution models (SDMs) for 188 taxa endemic to Italy with the IUCN red listing range loss threshold under criterion A (30%) to define: (a) the number of AC (measured as 2 x 2 km grid cells that should be occupied by new populations, i.e. grid cells = new populations) required to fully compensate for predicted range loss and to halt the decline below the 30% of range loss; (b) The number of cells necessary to compensate for range loss was calculated as the number of currently occupied cells lost under future climate due to unsuitable conditions. We used two representative concentration pathways, +2.6 and +8.5 W/m(2), optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. Availability of suitable areas for AC was also assessed within the current species distribution and within protected areas.Under the optimistic scenario, no taxa would lose more than 30% of their range and AC would not be required. Under the pessimistic scenario, roughly the 90% of taxa showed a cell loss higher than 30%. Eight taxa were predicted to lose >95% of their range. For these species, AC was required from 13 to 16 new populations (=13-16 grid cells) per taxon to cap the range loss at 30%. For currently VU or EN species, an average number of 32-35 AC attempts would be necessary to fully compensate their range loss under a pessimistic scenario. Suitable recipient sites within protected areas falling in their projected range were identified, allowing for short-distance AC.Synthesis. Combining species distribution models and red listing thresholds under Criterion A has enabled the strategic planning of multiple species assisted colonisation minimising the effort in terms of new populations to be created and maximising the conservation benefit in terms of range loss compensation.