Voters without a Party: The ‘Long Decade’ of the Italian Centre-Right and its Uncertain Future
Voters without a Party: The ‘Long Decade’ of the Italian Centre-Right and its Uncertain Future
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无党选民：意大利中右翼的“漫长十年”及其不确定的未来
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发表时间：
2018
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通讯作者：
Marco Tarchi
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作者：
Marco Tarchi
摘要 继20世纪90年代初期的腐败丑闻之后，西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼领导的选举联盟的诞生，以及它在1994年、2001年和2008年占领政府，被许多人解读为意大利中右翼成功新时代的标志。然而，在2013年全国大选中以微弱优势落败后，中右翼似乎陷入了政治深渊。尽管民意调查显示其潜在选民仍然广泛，但组成联合政府的前盟友已因一系列分裂而分裂和削弱，使中右翼分裂为更为温和的部分和公开的民粹主义部分。中右翼的旧统治精英已经失去了信誉，但马泰奥·萨尔维尼和乔治亚·梅洛尼等新的年轻领导人却无法重新统一前联盟。中右翼政党因几个因素而分裂，这些因素解释了其在经济危机十年中遇到的困难：其领导层的个人化、派系主义、纲领的分歧、制度化的失败以及持续存在的腐败和法律问题。这些因素看起来也将决定其政治未来。
Abstract Following the corruption scandals of the early 1990s, the birth of the electoral coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi, and its occupation of government in 1994, 2001 and 2008, was interpreted by many as a sign of a new era of success for the Italian centre-right. Yet, after narrowly losing the 2013 national elections, the centre-right appears to have fallen into a political abyss. While opinion polls suggest that its potential electorate is still wide, the former allies that made up the coalition have been fragmented and weakened by a series of splits, leaving the centre-right divided into a more moderate component and an openly populist one. The centre-right’s old ruling elites have lost credibility, but the new younger leaders, like Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni, are not able to re-unify the former coalition. The centre-right has been riven by several factors that explain its difficulties during the decade of the economic crisis: the personalisation of its leadership, factionalism, a divergence of programmes, a failure of institutionalisation and ongoing corruption and legal problems. These factors also look set to condition its political future.