Forecasting for remanufacturing: The effects of serialization
Forecasting for remanufacturing: The effects of serialization
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DOI：
10.1002/joom.1031
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
van der Laan, Erwin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goltsos, Thanos E.;Syntetos, A. A.;van der Laan, Erwin
再制造业务依赖于对需求和退货的准确预测。退货时间和数量预测有助于估计净需求（需求减去退货）要求。基于Excelitas集团及其国防承包商Qioptiq的一系列交易问题和回报的独特数据集，我们评估了回报预测领域一些关键方法的实证表现。我们扩展了它们的应用（净需求预测），考虑到需求也受到不确定性的影响，因此需要预测。关于再制造成本的信息允许在各种设置下对这种预测的库存影响进行评估。通过对信息技术文献的研究，可以讨论信息可用性与预测准确性和实用性之间的界面。我们发现，序列化占相当大的预测准确性的好处，需求预测的准确性是一样重要的回报。此外，我们展示了如何结合回报和需求预测的不确定性影响库存绩效。最后，我们确定了进一步改进Qioptiq运营和再制造运营的机会。
Remanufacturing operations rely upon accurate forecasts of demand and returned items. Return timing and quantity forecasts help estimate net demand (demand minus returns) requirements. Based on a unique data set of serialized transactional issues and returns from the Excelitas Group and one of their defense contractors, Qioptiq, we assess the empirical performance of some key methods in the area of returns forecasting. We extend their application (for net demand forecasting), by considering that demand is also subject to uncertainty and thus needs to be forecast. Information on remanufacturing costs allows for an evaluation of the inventory implications of such forecasts under various settings. A foray into the literature on information technologies enables a discussion on the interface between information availability and forecast accuracy and utility. We find that serialization accounts for considerable forecast accuracy benefits, and that the accuracy of demand forecasts is as important as that of returns. Further, we show how the combined returns and demand forecast uncertainty affects the inventory performance. Finally, we identify opportunities for further improvements for the operations of Qioptiq, and for remanufacturing operations in general.