Predict overall survival of spinal conventional chordoma: Development and assessment of a new predictive nomogram
Predict overall survival of spinal conventional chordoma: Development and assessment of a new predictive nomogram
复制标题
预测脊柱传统脊索瘤的总体生存率：新的预测列线图的开发和评估。
DOI：
10.1016/j.clineuro.2020.106174
复制
发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Dong, Jian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, Kaiyuan;Song, Kehan;Dong, Jian
目的：为了预测传统脊柱脉络膜炎患者的5年总生存率（OS），患者和方法：使用监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）登记研究来识别1994年至2013年的传统脊柱脉络膜炎患者。将整个队列（n = 294）随机分为训练（n = 147）和验证（n = 147）队列，以构建列线图。采用单因素Log-rank检验和多因素考克斯模型分析影响OS的独立预后因素，并通过R studio构建诺模图。预测和验证能力的诺模图计算Harrell的一致性指数（C指数）和校准currency.Results：共294例患者被确定为传统的脊柱脉络膜。患者诊断时的年龄、肿瘤大小、EOD（疾病程度）和治疗是独立的预后因素，并与OS相关。诺模图的一致性指数在训练队列和验证队列中分别为0.771和0.732。5年OS的内部和外部校准曲线显示列线图预测和观察到的outcomes.Conclusions之间的匹配非常好：本研究的结果提供了基于人群的传统的脊柱脉络膜患者的估计。使用该列线图，外科医生可以将患者分为不同的风险组，并实现个性化治疗。
Objective: To predict the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate in patients with conventional chordoma of the spinePatients and methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Registry was used to identify patients with conventional chordoma of the spine from 1994 to 2013. The entire cohort(n = 294) was randomly divided into training (n = 147) and validation (n = 147) cohorts to construct a nomogram. We used the univariate Log-rank test and multivariate Cox model to examine the independent prognostic factors associated with OS. These prognostic factors were integrated to construct a nomogram through R studio. The predictive and validating capacity of the nomogram was calculated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves.Results: A total of 294 patients were identified with conventional chordoma of the spine. The patients' age at diagnosis, tumor size, EOD (extent of disease), and treatment were independent prognostic factors and associated with OS. These prognostic factors were incorporated to construct a nomogram. The concordance index for the nomogram was 0.771 and 0.732 in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Internal and external calibration curves for 5-year OS showed excellent matching between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes.Conclusions: The findings of this study provide population-based estimates of patients with conventional chordoma of the spine. Using this nomogram, surgeons can classify patients into different risk groups and achieve individualized treatment.