Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution
Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02000.x
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发表时间：
2010-04-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Grenouillet, Gael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Buisson, Laetitia;Thuiller, Wilfried;Grenouillet, Gael
物种分布模型已被广泛应用以评估气候变化对生物多样性的潜在影响。然而，在建模过程和预测过程中做出的许多方法决策可能会导致未来影响评估的巨大变化。利用物种范围变化和周转的措施，评估了气候变化对法国溪流鱼类物种和组合的潜在影响。我们的主要重点是量化由四个不确定性来源引起的这些影响预测的不确定性：初始数据集（数据）、统计方法[物种分布模型（SDM）]、大气环流模型（GCM）和气体排放情景（GES）。上述不确定性来源的几种模式被组合在一个集合预测框架中，从而产生 8400 种不同的预测。然后从整个预测集合中提取每个来源解释的方差。总体而言，SDM 对预测变化的贡献最大，其次是 GCM，其贡献随着时间的推移而增加，几乎等于 2080 年 SDM 解释的方差比例。数据和 GES 对预测变化影响不大。对于地理范围较大（即沿纬度或河流梯度分布）或环境要求有限（即温度或海拔范围较小）的物种，未来范围变化的预测更加一致。营业额预测的变异性在法国范围内具有空间结构，这表明在预测气候变化的潜在影响时应谨慎考虑某些特定地理区域。因此，这项研究的结果强调，应特别注意通过应用多种统计方法和气候模型而产生的预测集合的使用。此外，气候变化的预测影响应始终评估其不确定性，以便在充分了解其可靠性的情况下做出管理和保护决策。
Species distribution modelling has been widely applied in order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Many methodological decisions, taken during the modelling process and forecasts, may, however, lead to a large variability in the assessment of future impacts. Using measures of species range change and turnover, the potential impacts of climate change on French stream fish species and assemblages were evaluated. Our main focus was to quantify the uncertainty in the projections of these impacts arising from four sources of uncertainty: initial datasets (Data), statistical methods [species distribution models (SDM)], general circulation models (GCM), and gas emission scenarios (GES). Several modalities of the aforementioned uncertainty sources were combined in an ensemble forecasting framework resulting in 8400 different projections. The variance explained by each source was then extracted from this whole ensemble of projections. Overall, SDM contributed to the largest variation in projections, followed by GCM, whose contribution increased over time equalling almost the proportion of variance explained by SDM in 2080. Data and GES had little influence on the variability in projections. Future projections of range change were more consistent for species with a large geographical extent (i.e., distribution along latitudinal or stream gradients) or with restricted environmental requirements (i.e., small thermal or elevation ranges). Variability in projections of turnover was spatially structured at the scale of France, indicating that certain particular geographical areas should be considered with care when projecting the potential impacts of climate change. The results of this study, therefore, emphasized that particular attention should be paid to the use of predictions ensembles resulting from the application of several statistical methods and climate models. Moreover, forecasted impacts of climate change should always be provided with an assessment of their uncertainty, so that management and conservation decisions can be taken in the full knowledge of their reliability.