A Reliability‐Based Capability Approach
A Reliability‐Based Capability Approach
复制标题
基于可靠性的能力方法
DOI：
10.1111/risa.12843
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
C. Murphy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Armin Tabandeh;P. Gardoni;C. Murphy
本文提出了一种严格的数学方法，称为基于可靠性的能力方法（RCA），来量化危险的社会影响。 RCA 的出发点是一种能力方法，其中能力是指向个人开放的真正机会，以实现有价值的行为和存在（例如移动和受到庇护），称为功能。能力取决于个人拥有什么以及他们可以用他们拥有的做什么。本文开发了概率预测模型，将每种功能的价值与危险发生后一组易于预测或可测量的量（回归量）联系起来。个人所选功能的预测值共同决定了危险对其健康状态的影响。提出的 RCA 将功能预测模型集成到系统可靠性问题中，以确定幸福状态是可接受、可容忍或不可容忍的概率。定义重要性衡量标准是为了量化每种功能对福祉状态的贡献。来自重要性度量的信息可以为有关风险缓解和管理的有限资源的优化分配的决策提供信息。
This article proposes a rigorous mathematical approach, named a reliability‐based capability approach (RCA), to quantify the societal impact of a hazard. The starting point of the RCA is a capability approach in which capabilities refer to the genuine opportunities open to individuals to achieve valuable doings and beings (such as being mobile and being sheltered) called functionings. Capabilities depend on what individuals have and what they can do with what they have. The article develops probabilistic predictive models that relate the value of each functioning to a set of easily predictable or measurable quantities (regressors) in the aftermath of a hazard. The predicted values of selected functionings for an individual collectively determine the impact of a hazard on his/her state of well‐being. The proposed RCA integrates the predictive models of functionings into a system reliability problem to determine the probability that the state of well‐being is acceptable, tolerable, or intolerable. Importance measures are defined to quantify the contribution of each functioning to the state of well‐being. The information from the importance measures can inform decisions on optimal allocation of limited resources for risk mitigation and management.