Real-time reliability evaluation of two-phase Wiener degradation process
Real-time reliability evaluation of two-phase Wiener degradation process
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DOI：
10.1080/03610926.2014.988262
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发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Wei Yan;Baowei Song;Gui-Lin Duan;Yimin Shi
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文献类型：
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作者：
Wei Yan;Baowei Song;Gui-Lin Duan;Yimin Shi
研究了两相维纳退化过程的可靠性建模与评估。对于许多器件来说，由于降解机制的改变，降解率可能在某个时间点以非平滑的方式增加或减少。采用一种具有不可观测变化点的两相维纳降解过程来模拟降解过程。我们假设变化点随设备的不同而随机变化。结合历史数据和最新观测数据，改进了基于贝叶斯方法的退化建模和评估。基于赤池信息准则（AIC）和残差平方和准则得到了两个相位之间的变化点。最后，通过一个液体耦合装置（lcd）的实例和数值算例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明，该方法是有效的。
ABSTRACT Reliability modeling and evaluation for the two-phase Wiener degradation process are studied. For many devices, the degradation rates could possibly increase or decrease in a non smooth manner at some point in time due to the change of degradation mechanism. A two-phase Wiener degradation process with an unobserved change point is used to model the degradation process. And we assume that the change point varies randomly from device to device. Furthermore, we integrate historical data and up-to-date observation data to improve the degradation modeling and evaluation based on Bayesian method. The change point between the two phases was obtained based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the criterion of the residual sum of squares. Finally, a real example of liquid coupling devices (LCDs) and a numeric example are discussed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient.