Economic fluctuations, volatility changes and the role of government spending in China: A structural analysis
Economic fluctuations, volatility changes and the role of government spending in China: A structural analysis
复制标题
中国经济波动、波动变化和政府支出的作用：结构分析
DOI：
10.1111/1468-0106.12302
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Junsang Lee and Min Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Minchung Hsu;Junsang Lee and Min Zhao
本文采用标准的新古典一般均衡模型对中国经济波动进行了结构分析。为了与文献一致，我们从中国数据中仔细构建了经济变量的测量。我们表明，政府支出行为在解释绝对和相对波动模式的变化方面起着重要作用。虽然我们发现1978年后经济波动的普遍缓和可以在很大程度上用全要素生产率（TFP）过程来解释，但TFP本身并不能解释相对波动模式的变化。研究表明，政府支出的政策变化可以解释相对波动性差异。本文还提供了反事实实验来发现各因素在解释中国经济波动中的作用。
We study the economic fluctuations in China by using a standard neoclassical general equilibrium model to provide a structural analysis. We have carefully constructed measurements for economic variables from Chinese data to be consistent with the literature. We show that the government spending behaviour plays an important role in accounting for the changes in the pattern of both absolute and relative volatilities. Although we find that a general moderation in economic fluctuations after 1978 can be largely explained by the total factor productivity (TFP) process, TFP itself cannot explain the change in the pattern of relative volatilities. We show that policy changes in government spending can account for the relative volatility divergency. Counterfactual experiments are also provided to discover the role of each factor in explaining the economic fluctuations in China.