State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States.
State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41562-020-00969-7
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发表时间：
2020-10
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Ndeffo-Mbah ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chiu WA;Fischer R;Ndeffo-Mbah ML
从2020年5月中旬开始，美国许多州开始放松为缓解新冠肺炎传播而实施的社会疏远措施。为了评估放宽限制对新冠肺炎动态和控制的影响，我们开发了一个传播动力学模型，并将其校准为美国州级新冠肺炎病例和死亡人数。我们使用该模型评估了社交距离、测试和接触者追踪对每个州的新冠肺炎疫情的影响。截至2020年7月22日，我们发现只有三个州走上了缩减疫情曲线的轨道。39个州和哥伦比亚特区可能不得不将测试和/或追踪率翻一番，和/或将重新开放回滚25%，而8个州需要更大的综合测试、追踪和距离措施。增加检测和接触者追踪能力对于缓解最近美国病例和死亡人数的大规模增加至关重要。
Starting in mid-May 2020, many US states began relaxing social distancing measures that were put in place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the impact of relaxation of restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control, we developed a transmission dynamic model and calibrated it to US state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths. We used this model to evaluate the impact of social distancing, testing and contact tracing on the COVID-19 epidemic in each state. As of July 22, 2020, we found only three states were on track to curtail their epidemic curve. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia may have to double their testing and/or tracing rates and/or rolling back reopening by 25%, while eight states require an even greater measure of combined testing, tracing, and distancing. Increased testing and contact tracing capacity is paramount for mitigating the recent large-scale increases in U.S. cases and deaths.
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