Stability of response characteristics of a Delphi panel: application of bootstrap data expansion.
Stability of response characteristics of a Delphi panel: application of bootstrap data expansion.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2288-5-37
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发表时间：
2005-12-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Cole BR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Akins RB;Tolson H;Cole BR
德尔菲调查与专家小组在一个特定的领域的利益已被广泛用于临床医学，护理实践，医学教育和医疗保健服务领域。尽管德尔菲方法具有广泛的适用性，但并没有明确确定参加德尔菲调查的足够人数，以确保结果的稳定性。该研究分析了第一轮德尔菲调查的反应特征，23名专家在医疗质量和患者安全。小组成员接受了类似的培训，并对Malcolm Baldrige医疗保健卓越绩效标准有着类似的主题理解。第一轮抽样的原始数据通常包含最大的答复多样性，通过自举抽样增加原始数据，以获得通过替换抽样获得的两个较大样本的计算机生成结果。响应特性（平均值，修剪平均值，标准差和95%的置信区间）为54个调查项目进行了比较，为23个实际的研究参与者和两个计算机生成的样本的1000和2000 rescue迭代的响应。研究结果表明，在增广抽样的情况下，小规模专家小组在一个明确定义的知识领域的反应特征是稳定的。由受过类似培训的专家（对感兴趣的领域有一般了解）组成的专家小组有效和可靠地利用了从某一研究领域的有限专家中选出的少量样本，以制定可靠的标准，为判断提供信息，并支持有效的决策。
Delphi surveys with panels of experts in a particular area of interest have been widely utilized in the fields of clinical medicine, nursing practice, medical education and healthcare services. Despite this wide applicability of the Delphi methodology, there is no clear identification of what constitutes a sufficient number of Delphi survey participants to ensure stability of results. The study analyzed the response characteristics from the first round of a Delphi survey conducted with 23 experts in healthcare quality and patient safety. The panel members had similar training and subject matter understanding of the Malcolm Baldrige Criteria for Performance Excellence in Healthcare. The raw data from the first round sampling, which usually contains the largest diversity of responses, were augmented via bootstrap sampling to obtain computer-generated results for two larger samples obtained by sampling with replacement. Response characteristics (mean, trimmed mean, standard deviation and 95% confidence intervals) for 54 survey items were compared for the responses of the 23 actual study participants and two computer-generated samples of 1000 and 2000 resampling iterations. The results from this study indicate that the response characteristics of a small expert panel in a well-defined knowledge area are stable in light of augmented sampling. Panels of similarly trained experts (who possess a general understanding in the field of interest) provide effective and reliable utilization of a small sample from a limited number of experts in a field of study to develop reliable criteria that inform judgment and support effective decision-making.