Binary decision diagram–based methods for risk assessment of systems subject to propagated failures and parametric uncertainties
Binary decision diagram–based methods for risk assessment of systems subject to propagated failures and parametric uncertainties
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DOI：
10.1002/qre.2344
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
S. Qiu;Henry X. G. Ming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Qiu;Henry X. G. Ming
组件之间的并发故障意味着一个组件的故障可能导致系统中其他组件的故障。由于传播的故障会极大地导致系统不可用，因此在对系统建模时考虑组件之间的传播故障是很重要的。有时，由于历史数据的不充分和统计数据的随机性等原因，可能难以获得某些参数的精确值。在这种情况下，可以给出区间值而不是精确值来表示与参数值相关的参数不确定性。本文提出了显式和隐式二元决策树为基础的方法来建模系统的传播故障和评估系统的故障概率参数不确定性。将所提出的方法应用于一个近头对头的铁路事故，以评估事故的发生概率。
Propagated failures between components mean that the failure of one component may cause the failures of other components within the system. Because propagated failures contribute greatly to the system unavailability, it is important to take into account propagated failures between components when modeling systems. Sometimes, it may be difficult to obtain the precise values of some parameters due to many reasons, such as the insufficiency of historical data and the randomness of statistical data. In this case, interval values can be given instead of precise values to represent the parametric uncertainty related to the values of parameters. This paper proposes explicit and implicit binary decision diagram–based methods to model systems subject to propagated failures and to evaluate the failure probability of systems under parametric uncertainty. The proposed methods are applied to a near head‐to‐head railway accident to evaluate the occurrence probability of accidents.