Policies for a Second Wave
Policies for a Second Wave
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DOI：
10.1353/eca.2020.0013
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Stock, James H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baqaee, David;Farhi, Emmanuel;Stock, James H.
2020年春，新冠肺炎感染和死亡的最初激增通过经济停摆和非经济的非药物干预(NPI)相结合的方式得到平缓。第二波感染和死亡的可能性提出了一个问题，即可以使用什么干预措施大幅减少死亡人数，同时支持而不是阻止经济复苏。我们使用一个五岁流行病学模型结合66个部门的经济核算来检查避免和应对第二波疫情的政策。我们发现，仅靠第二轮经济停摆既不足以也不必要避免或平息第二轮经济停摆。相比之下，非经济性NPI，如戴口罩和个人距离，增加检测和隔离，重新引入对社交和娱乐聚会的限制，以及加强对老年人的保护，可以缓解第二波浪潮，同时为经济复苏留出空间。
In the spring of 2020, the initial surge of COVID-19 infections and deaths was flattened using a combination of economic shutdowns and noneconomic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The possibility of a second wave of infections and deaths raises the question of what interventions can be used to significantly reduce deaths while supporting, not preventing, economic recovery. We use a five-age epidemiological model combined with sixty-six-sector economic accounting to examine policies to avert and to respond to a second wave. We find that a second round of economic shutdowns alone are neither sufficient nor necessary to avert or quell a second wave. In contrast, noneconomic NPIs, such as wearing masks and personal distancing, increasing testing and quarantine, reintroducing restrictions on social and recreational gatherings, and enhancing protections for the elderly together can mitigate a second wave while leaving room for an economic recovery.