Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory
Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2009.11.024
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发表时间：
2010-03
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Lei Zhu;Ying Fan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lei Zhu;Ying Fan
本文应用投资组合理论对我国2020年中期发电技术规划及其发电组合进行了评价。本文结合相关发电成本流的风险，探讨了中国未来发展高效（帕累托最优）发电组合，以提高不同情景（包括CO2排放受限情景）下的能源安全。研究发现，未来中国2020年发电组合的调整可以通过适当的发电技术多样化来降低组合的成本风险，但会以增加发电成本的形式付出代价。在CO2排放约束情景下，中国2020年计划的发电成本风险甚至大于2005年计划的发电成本风险，但增加核电在发电成本中的比重可以有效降低成本风险。对于可再生能源发电而言，由于发电成本较高，因此需要获得更强有力的政策支持，以促进可再生能源的发展。
This paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO2-emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO2-emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development.