Risk Analysis for Cascade Reservoirs Collapse Based on Bayesian Networks under the Combined Action of Flood and Landslide Surge
Risk Analysis for Cascade Reservoirs Collapse Based on Bayesian Networks under the Combined Action of Flood and Landslide Surge
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DOI：
10.1155/2016/2903935
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ping Li;Chuan Liang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ping Li;Chuan Liang
本研究采用基于贝叶斯网络（BN）结合随机蒙特卡罗（MC）模拟的方法，计算洪水和滑坡涌潮共同作用下单库大坝溃坝和两库溃坝的概率并分析风险。选择大渡河上相邻的两个梯级水库进行风险计算和分析。结果表明，单个水库因洪水漫坝的条件概率较小；单库滑坡涌坝的条件概率较大；洪水和山体滑坡的结合大大增加了大坝溃决的风险。当长河坝水库正常水位时，由于猴子岩水库（上游）溃坝洪水导致长河坝水库（下游）溃坝的条件概率大于0.8。在洪水和滑坡涌潮的共同作用下，两个梯级水库在各种典型情况下联合垮塌的概率很小。
A method based on a Bayesian network (BN) combined with stochastic Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used in this research to calculate the probability and analyze the risk of a single reservoir dam overtopping and two reservoirs collapsing under the combined action of flood and landslide surge. Two adjacent cascade reservoirs on the Dadu River are selected for risk calculation and analysis. The results show that the conditional probability of a dam overtopping due to flooding in a single reservoir is relatively small; the conditional probability of a dam overtopping due to landslide surge in a single reservoir is relatively large; a combination of flooding and landslide surge greatly increases the risk of the dam overtopping. The conditional probability that the dam in (downstream) Changheba reservoir overtops as a result of a dam-break flood from (upstream) Houziyan reservoir is greater than 0.8 when the water in Changheba reservoir is at its normal level. Under the combined action of flooding and landslide surges, the joint probability that the two cascade reservoirs collapse in a variety of typical situations is very small.